韩国汽车崛起之全记录

翻开汽车诞生至今一百多年的风雨历程，我们不难发现，韩国汽车的发展的确可以用“崛起”这个词来描述。许多人都喜欢把中国的汽车行业与韩国相比较。特别是韩国汽车起步比中国晚，早期发展并不顺利，但自80年代后期开始，韩国汽车业风生水起，不仅出现现代、大宇这样的跨国公司，而且也形成了在国际上具有一定影响力的自主品牌，在国际汽车市场的竞争中占有一席之地。韩国汽车在1970年产量仅2.8万辆，短短30余年之间，年产量已猛增300万辆以上，产品遍销世界各地。如此骄傲的成绩，确实值得学习。

六十年代

依靠合资引进技术 韩国汽车产业是韩国出口第一位，贸易额第一位，提供的就业职位第一位的产业，更是韩韩国工业最重要的组成部分，占韩国生产制造业的11.1%，提供就业职位占韩国人口的8%，占韩国总出口额的12.8%(04年为325亿美元)，同时韩国汽车工业也带动了前后相关产业的发展，包括生产材料(钢铁，橡胶，塑料等)，汽车销售以及汽车零部件，运输部门，流通部门等相关产业。汽车以及相关产业提供的就业职位一共有154万，占韩国总就业职位(1473万)的10.4%。

韩国的汽车工业最早始于1955年。当时韩国Sibal汽车株式会社，曾用美军二手军车，改制为吉普车，这可以说是韩国生产乘用车的发端，但实质上只是修配车或再生车，并且Sibal不具备基本的生产和技术基础，甚至连固定的厂房都没有。到1962年为止，这种吉普车共生产、销售了3000多辆。韩国真正意义上的生产汽车始自于1962年8月，韩国出现第一家与日本日产汽车进行技术合作生产的公有汽车制造厂。当时主要是将1500cc排量的“蓝鸟”以散件组装（KD）方式进行生产。1966年，新进汽车工业株式会社（大宇汽车的前身）开始与丰田技术合作生产1500cc“CORONA”。1973年，开始生产乘用车的起亚产业株式会社与日本马自达进行技术合作，KD组装生产马自达的产品，该车型迅速成为韩国汽车市场的畅销车。由此可见，在韩国汽车工业的发展初期，韩国的汽车生产是以KD组装日本车为主，受日本汽车企业的影响非常大。

自1966年与丰田技术合作生产的“CORONA”在韩国市场的销售获得成功以来，新进汽车进一步加强了与丰田的合作伙伴关系。1970年2月，根据韩国政府颁布的《汽车发动机厂建设推进计划》，该公司又与丰田签订了投资50亿韩元建设年产20万辆规模的发动机厂的意向书。但是，由于中日两国恢复邦交后我国周恩来总理向日本提出了“周4原则”，日本丰田不得不于1972年从韩国完全撤出，当时排名韩国汽车业第一的新进汽车也由此步入了没落之途。在丰田撤退后，该公司与GM合资成立了GMK，开始批量生产GM公司的两款1700cc的车型，但是这两种车型并没有像所预期的那样受到消费者的青睐。最终该公司不得不将公司名变更为新韩，并于1978年被大宇集团收购，再次更名为大宇汽车。

以中日恢复邦交为分水岭，韩国汽车业在选择合作伙伴时开始将目光转向欧美的汽车企业。例如1965年成立的亚细亚汽车株式会社，于1970年与意大利的菲亚特公司合作，开始生产1200cc的菲亚特124。1976年，由于国产化计划失败，该公司被起亚产业所收购。1967年12月在韩国蔚山成立的现代汽车株式会社与福特进行技术合作，于1968年开始组装生产英国福特开发的1600cc级的福特“Cortina”。在70年代中期，该公司占有韩国乘用车80％的市场份额。 1974年，现代汽车首次开发成功1300cc的“Pony”（即“小马”），这款由意大利设计、引进了日本三菱公司发动机、传动系和底盘技术的轿车于1976年被首次出口至南美的厄瓜多尔，开创了韩国汽车出口的先河。因此这种开发模式的成功也一度被评价为现代汽车不甘做跨国汽车企业附庸、走独立自主路线的原动力。在这种固有的开发模式取得成功之后，现代汽车经历了80年代的批量生产与出口阶段，再逐步发展到90年代的自主开发阶段。

七十年代

自主技术开发创造奇迹

汽车产业发展的核心，是自主技术开发能力的形成。韩国汽车产业中的合资方式，加上国内外市场的竞争环境，保证了技术学习顺利向自主技术开发过渡。但是，没有合格的企业作为技术学习的主体，上述的过渡同样无法实现，韩国汽车产业的重要经验之一，就是在市场竞争环境中培植合格的企业。

汽车制造技术既包括设计、制造、组装方面的技术，也包括营销、组织管理方面的技术，既包括核心和关键性技术，也包括普通和简单的技术。当然，对汽车产业而言，自主技术开发能力集中体现在设计和制造方面，这些技术的不断改进，使得汽车产业的产品创新日新月异。例如，所有的轿车，从福特的T型车，到现在的奔驰、丰田或林肯，虽都是轿车，主体结构都是车身加发动机，安装在底盘上，再装上四只轮胎，而技术却具有天壤之别，特别是这种技术和产品创新，与特定产品或产品特定型式的排他性知识产权相联系时，就构成后进国家的进入汽车产业的关键性壁垒，即使后进国家具备了相应的加工制造技术，如果不能开发、设计出具有市场竞争力的自主品牌，最终也不能说该国具有独立的汽车产业，至多只能算是汽车加工基地，所以，不难理解，为什么人们那么看重本国的自主品牌汽车。

在汽车产业自主品牌讨论中，通常有这样的观点：产品开发能力是关键，通过政府支持或资金投入，就可以增强研发能力，从而有可能加快汽车自主品牌的形成。这里涉及政府在产业技术创新中的角色定位问题。如上所述，汽车产业的技术从简单的加工、工艺、组装，到营销、组织、设计，内容庞杂，对生产出高质量的汽车而言，这些技术并不存在高低之分，希望依靠政府确定对某些环节的技术进行重点支持，快速形成产业的技术自主开发能力，是不现实的，因为政府官员不可能充分掌握产业技术的复杂内容。并且，上述的技术中，包含大量的只有通过干中学和经验积累才能掌握的默会性知识。因此，只有形成具有自主开发意识的企业，以及创造适合企业自主开发的环境，才能有效地进行技术学习。

韩国汽车产业发展过程中，重要的不在于政府较早强调自主开发，而在于通过开放竞争的环境，培养了企业追求利润、敢于冒险的创新精神，并且摸索出相应的获取技术能力的模式。韩国政府对经济活动的干预较多，包括计划、信贷等许多方面，但所有这些干预，均与企业的市场业绩，特别是出口业绩紧密联系。一家得到政府支持或资助的企业，如果没有完成相应的市场业绩指标，所有支持或资助将被取消，由于市场业绩指标是客观的，这就避免了政府官员评价的任意性。这种情况下，不论是直接在市场上获利，还是通过政府支持或资助获利，企业都必须研究和适应市场，并根据市场需要确定产品开发和技术引进。

在市场竞争环境中，企业要获得或维持市场竞争力，必须提高自身的技术吸收和技术开发能力。正是基于这种认识，韩国汽车企业选择了适当的技术引进和学习方式，逐步形成自己的开发能力，这个过程中，如果没有逐利、冒险的企业家精神，是无法实现的。现代汽车采取购买技术的方法，进行艰苦的自主研发，最终形成自主品牌，它的技术学习、吸收和创新过程，集中体现了企业家精神的重要性。

当年现代公司在与外国企业签订了技术许可证协议，并购买了国外设备、聘请了顾问人员之后，并未能顺利地生产出汽车。“尽管进行了培训，并得到专家顾问的服务，现代公司的技术人员经过14个月的反复试错过程，才制造出一个样品。在最初试验中，发动机成为碎片，几乎每个星期的实验中均出现同样的问题，试验组中没有人知道原因何在，以致在公司的管理层中产生了严重疑问，公司是否具有开发有竞争力发动机的能力。试验小组在重新试验之前，不得不废弃11台发动机，经过2888次设计改进，制造了97台发动机样品，才重新树立起信心并制造出发动机”。可见，技术学习、吸收和创新过程，充满了不确定性，没有企业家精神，单靠政府支持或资助是不能实现的。

大宇是通过购买合资企业——韩国通用的韩方股份，进入汽车工业的，但是，由于合资合同中规定，合资企业生产的汽车不能返销美国，产品和技术的变动，必须经过通用公司的同意，大宇为求得自主开发权，最后将通用公司股份全部收购，到90年代中期，也独立开发出自己的品牌。实现这种收购，以及收购之后能否开发出自主技术和品牌，也同样少不了企业家精神的作用。

八十年代

改革道路崎岖漫长

但是，韩国汽车工业的发展并不是一帆风顺。特别是第二次石油危机致使各汽车厂家的赤字急速增加。1981年，韩国政府不得不对汽车产业采取整合措施。通过这次整合，乘用车的生产主要集中在现代汽车和新韩汽车两家公司，微型商用车集中于起亚汽车一家公司，而特种车则集中在东亚汽车株式会社一家公司。不过，随着后来整合力度的缓和，起亚汽车又重新开始生产乘用车，并在这一时期逐步形成了设计－生产－销售的国际分工结构。例如，起亚汽车的“PRIDE”就是由日本马自达设计，韩国起亚汽车生产，美国福特销售。而大宇汽车也与德国欧宝合作，在韩国生产欧宝设计的车型并通过GM的销售网在美国市场销售。

1989年，韩国政府对汽车产业的整合措施被完全解除后，现代精工、大宇造船和三星汽车等新进入者相继加入到汽车行业的大军当中。企业间的自主开发竞争也日益激烈起来。随着竞争程度的白热化，企业的借贷急剧增多。为了加速扩张而盲目投资，为了扩大在韩国国内的市场份额而大出血甩卖，这种现象屡见不鲜，整个韩国汽车市场呈现出一味追求量的增长的特征。这种现象一直持续到1997年底韩国爆发经济危机。自此以后，韩国汽车业才急速进入结构调整期。

由于盲目从外部借贷款和投资，韩国多数汽车厂商面临着金融危机和倒闭的危机。结果除了现代汽车以外，其他汽车厂商均在1998年以后成为大规模结构调整的对象。在这期间，旧有的5家集团下面的9家汽车厂商，被缩减为现代·起亚、大宇·双龙和三星等三大集团共5家企业。

1999年3月现代汽车收购起亚汽车，并相继于1999年4月和1999年7月合并了现代服务株式会社及现代精工株式会社，成立了现代汽车集团。而起亚汽车在1997年7月宣布破产后，在1999年3月被现代汽车收购，1999年6月它又与亚细亚汽车等系列公司合并，最终于2000年2月被免除法庭管制。有资料显示，2004年韩国现代·起亚汽车集团的产量达到340万辆，成为排名世界第7位的汽车厂商。

大宇汽车虽然也主动地进行了一系列的结构调整，先于1998年1月收购了双龙汽车，1999年3月，又合并了大宇国民车（大宇重工业的国民车部门），但是大宇汽车的这种扩张收效甚微，最终于1999年8月成为韩国政府及金融机构共同的监控对象。2001年，大宇汽车和GM签订备忘录，并于2002年最终签订协议，同年10月成立新公司GM大宇A&T，开始了它的新的征途。

双龙汽车则在1999年12月从大宇汽车中分离出来，目前处于债权银行团体的管理之下，经营业绩也已取得明显的改善。2004年10月底，双龙汽车又被我国的上汽收购。

三星汽车于1999年6月被法庭管制，2000年4月被雷诺收购，同年9月成立雷诺三星汽车公司。而三星商用车则于2000年11月完全退出了汽车市场。

大宇商用车则在2003年被印度最大的汽车生产集团TATA集团所收购。

经过一系列的结构调整后，韩国汽车厂商的收益结构得到了很大的改善。特别是现代汽车，自1998年经济危机之后，其在国内的销售及出口开始好转，销售额和纯利润的增长也相当强劲。有资料显示，2003年现代汽车的销售额和纯利润分别增长了216亿美元和15亿美元；起亚汽车的销售额和纯利润则分别增长了11亿美元和6亿美元。此外，双龙汽车的经营状况也大有改善，雷诺三星汽车自2002年以后一直都是黑字。不过，被GM收购的GM大宇A&T则仍处于赤字状态中。

九十年代

产业结构再临变革

在1998年经济危机爆发之前，由于一味追求量的增长，韩国汽车产业存在着投资效率低下、金融结构不透明等结构上的问题。然而，以经济危机为契机，各大汽车企业开始节减费用，这些问题也都相应地得到了解决，例如，现代汽车通过与起亚汽车合并，共享平台，取得了规模经济效益。在零部件领域，现代·起亚汽车采购部门的合并也带来了规模经济的效果。与此同时，经济危机以后，韩元贬值提高了韩国汽车企业在国外市场的价格竞争力，汽车出口开始增加。

韩国汽车产业通过迅速调整产业结构，不仅使企业的竞争力得到提高，而且增长方式也得到改变，由过去那种通过从外部借贷资金来扩大投资和生产规模、对产品进行大甩卖这种量的增长开始向一种新的质的增长转变。而这种新型的质的增长方式的核心是，品质胜于价格、内部资金优于外部资金、内部技术重于外部技术。追赶国际汽车巨头的核心也由过去的扩大设备投资开始转向技术的积累和开发。

就这样人们对韩国汽车品质的评价也越来越好。关于品质，J.D.Power公司有一个初期品质调查系数IQS（Initial Quality Survey），这是根据该公司调查90天以内有购车行为的消费者的满意度后所得出的数据。根据J.D.Power公司2004年的IQS调查，在对企业的评价这一项目中，现代汽车的IQS为102，排名第二，仅次于丰田的101。而且整个韩国汽车业的IQS也排在欧洲和美国汽车业的前面。在1998年，现代汽车的100辆汽车中有272处质量问题，而通过改善品质之后，2004年这一数字已减至117，六年间现代汽车的品质提高了57％。由此可见，国际市场上人们对韩国汽车的印象已得到根本改善，而韩国汽车也已变成质优价廉的产品。

2000年以后，韩国汽车业的结构调整和质的提高成为韩国汽车出口及进军海外市场的助推器。以1998年为分界点，在美国汽车市场一度因质量问题而遭受重创的韩国车开始进入了一个真正的增长阶段，出口产品的附加值也得以迅速提高。韩国汽车产业的结构发生了巨大的变化。1997年以前，韩国汽车业主要以扩大内需来实现增长，而到2000年以后，韩国汽车业的增长方式却呈现出以国外市场为主体的国际化特征。而这种转变正是因为其间有1998年的韩国经济危机。

以现代·起亚集团为中心，韩国汽车业正在加快实现在国外的本地化生产。在印度成功建厂、在中国市场所取得的骄人成绩、2005年预定在美国建厂、预定在欧洲的斯洛伐克建立起亚汽车厂等等，这些都是最好的例证。

二十一世纪面临的挑战

韩国汽车工业经历了KD组装阶段（60年代）、固有模式开发阶段（70年代）、批量生产与扩大出口阶段（80年代）和自主开发阶段（90年代）等四个阶段后实现了以内需为主的高速增长。在80年代10年间，韩国汽车的总产量翻了3番多，相继跨过30万辆、60万辆和100万辆的高台阶。1985 年至1987年，韩国汽车业以年均增长率60％的速度迅速发展。进入 90年代，韩国的汽车业仍保持全速发展的态势。在1990年至1995年间，韩国汽车总产量的年均增长率仍保持在15％左右，相继达到132万辆、150万辆、173万辆、207万辆、 230万辆和263万辆。1995年，韩国汽车产量跃居世界第5位，之后始终保持排名在第5或第6的位置。

与此同时，韩国的汽车出口也成绩卓著。自1976年出口了5辆汽车以来，28年间韩国总计出口量已突破1000万辆，合计出口金额为816亿美元。韩国汽车出口在1980年首破1亿美元之后，开始步入了大量出口的时代。到1995年，韩国又突破了出口汽车100万辆的大关，实现增长48.6％。1996年汽车出口金额上升为100亿美元，2004年出口金额已突破300亿美元，出口数量达232万辆。

韩国汽车出口的迅速增长不仅体现为出口数量与出口汽车种类的急剧增加，平均出口单价也有很大程度的提高。1998年韩国汽车出口的平均单价仅为6355美元，到2000年已上升为7000美元，目前则已接近10000美元。韩国由此也成为世界第6大汽车出口国，一跃成为世界汽车生产大国。而韩国汽车业的领头羊现代·起亚集团也确立了到2010年为止建立500万辆的生产体制、进入世界汽车企业排名前五位的目标。面对着日益激烈的国际化竞争，如何推进产业和企业的国际化，已成为韩国汽车业首当其冲的重要课题。显然这一课题将会比先前所克服的问题要显得更为艰巨。

首先，韩国汽车企业必须缩小与国际汽车巨头间的差距，并在此基础上保持自身的独特优势。因此，企业的发展战略必须由过去的以生产过程为中心的发展战略，向以研究开发和生产技术为中心、提高企业信誉的战略转变。因此，R&D投资、人才培养、生产体系的技术革新以及高附加值化等等，都是韩国汽车业格外重要的课题。韩国汽车产业通过经济危机后的结构调整增强了企业的实力，其产品品质在以美国市场为中心的国际市场上获得认可，这为韩国汽车产业步向质的增长打下了坚实的基础。

其次，韩国汽车企业在环保技术方面要落后于日本和欧美的先进企业。必须尽快积累混合动力车、燃料电池车、智能化等代表未来汽车发展方向的先进技术的开发能力。目前韩国汽车产业在这种先进技术方面还处于初期阶段。2004年10月1日，现代·起亚汽车集团向韩国环境部提供了自主开发的“CLICK”混合动力车。据悉，该车油耗为18.0km/L，比汽油型CLICK减少50%的油耗。该开发项目是韩国未来汽车开发事业中的一个项目，而该事业则被韩国政府指定为韩国经济增长的动力产业之一。

此外，在零部件与材料领域的核心技术开发方面，韩国汽车产业也仍存在着诸多问题。虽然世界10大零部件厂商已悉数进入韩国，韩国零部件企业的生产能力也有了相当大的提高，但是在核心零部件和系统零部件领域，韩国零部件企业还没有形成独立自主的开发能力，零部件产业的专业化也不够充分，不能与整车厂商的实力相配套。特别是汽车电子零部件和环保零部件领域的开发能力还有待于提高。

而在国外的本地化生产能否成功实现软着陆也是影响未来韩国汽车业发展的一个重要因素。1989年现代汽车曾在加拿大建厂，但由于整车品质和零部件的国际竞争力不足，最终以失败告终。1993年现代不得不停止生产，1996年现代因此蒙受了5000亿韩元的亏损，留下了惨痛的教训。因此，能否在美国、印度、中国和欧洲等世界主要的汽车市场成功实现本土化生产，可以说将决定着韩国汽车产业的未来。

最后就是韩国汽车厂商正在推行的以数字领域为中心的独创性战略。由于韩国在移动通信和互联网领域的技术已达到世界先进水平，因此，韩国的汽车厂商正尝试着将这一领域中具有竞争力的技术应用到汽车产业中。韩国企业将如何利用这一条件开发出仅韩国车所具有的独创价值，这将成为韩国汽车产业未来发展的关键。最近有人认为韩国汽车电子零部件品质的竞争力已得到提高，这恐怕与韩国企业的这种大胆尝试是分不开的。以前，日本和欧美等国在不同的领域中保持着各自独特的竞争优势，例如，美国是胜在规模上，德国则在设计和机械技术方面技胜一筹，而日本则在燃油和电子领域保持着自身独特的竞争优势。与此相比较，韩国汽车产业的数字化是否真能使韩国建立起有别于其他国家、具有韩国独特个性的竞争优势，这成为一个强有争议的话题。

对中国汽车工业的借鉴与反思

纵观韩国汽车产业的发展史，其中不乏值得我们深思之处。

一是政府始终在汽车产业的发展过程中扮演了重要的策略、扶持和主导角色，使整体产业的发展始终与世界汽车行业的前进趋势相一致，从利用汽车国产化学习外国先进经验与核心技术，到出口导向战略让本国汽车企业到海外参与竞争，从而完善自身的技术实力，以及一直实行的进口壁垒对本国汽车市场的保护，让本国汽车企业利用本国市场完成了资本积累等，无不体现了韩国政府在其中的重要作用；

二是韩国本国汽车企业积极发展自身技术能力与打造自主品牌的进取精神，是韩国汽车品牌能迅速进入全球汽车主流市场，并保持相当的核心竞争力的关键。韩国汽车虽然也许在欧美并不是品质一流汽车的代名词，但是外型的时尚、丰富的配置与合理的价格使产品竞争力很强，加上比别人长得多的保修时间与售后服务体系的完善，使韩国车在各地消费者心目中的信赖感逐步增强；

三是集团化、集约化的重点经营，抓大放小，随着大宇、双龙和三星纷纷被通用、戴克和雷诺收购，既利用跨国公司实现了对效益不好的企业的购并与重组，不使本国产业动荡过大，同时形成了以现代-起亚为主，具有全球竞争能力的跨国汽车集团，现代和起亚在管理与技术上的互补性，以及合并整合后在车型、发动机、底盘等共用平台的延展上可以互相借势，更使竞争力显著增强，无疑将成为韩国汽车产业中的领军企业。

并且，在汽车消费的舆论引导上，韩国也有许多值得我们学习的地方。去过韩国的人都知道，在韩国主要城市的大街上，尽管在首都汉城的商业区你能同样发现奔驰、宝马、VOLVO等世界一流品牌的汽车销售展示厅，但是在马路上能看到的进口车并不多。而普通韩国民众开的车以我们的眼光来看，也大多数超越了经济型轿车的概念，而以B级甚至C级车为主，MPV和SUV也很受欢迎。我们不得不钦佩韩国消费者在汽车消费行为上表露无疑的爱国之心。

尾声：

探究韩国汽车发展历史，对我们的意义何在？诚然，中国现实环境与韩国还是有着很大的不同，八十年代至今的国内汽车产业发展上，我们并没有好好把握机遇，也没有清晰的可具体执行的产业长远发展战略，更没有利用与跨国汽车公司合资的机会好好发展自身的自主开发能力。汽车行业自主品牌相对弱小、技术实力相对落后的局面仍然存在。他山之石，可以攻玉。也许，我们从韩国汽车崛起的历程中所获得的经验，将会成为中国汽车腾飞的助力。

韩国经济崛起的秘密：危机意识和奋斗精神

了解韩国只是第一步，而研究该国崛起的经验，以期对中国有所裨益，才是此行的最终目的。
　　短短一周行程，来去匆匆，有如蜻蜓点水，所见所闻俱为浮光掠影。但由于本刊采访团所接触的均为韩国最优秀的俊杰之士，和他们交流，自然获益匪浅。韩国奇迹般崛起的原因，见仁见智，以记者的管窥之得，至少有三处值得中国人重视。
　　危机意识
　　韩国是个狭长的半岛国家，东临日本，西靠广袤的中国大陆，处于两大强国的围夹之中。
　　历史上韩国多次遭受外族攻击，由于岛狭国小，回旋余地不大，攻守之势往往旬日间就会逆转。16世纪的壬辰倭乱，从韩国东南沿海入侵的日军，仅10天就兵临平壤城下。1950年，美军仁川登陆，登时扭转了朝鲜战局。特别是1910年的亡国之痛，日本吞并朝鲜半岛，李氏王朝覆灭，直到日本战败才结束了殖民地局面。
　　特殊的地缘政治格局，旦夕巨变的紧张感，无法弥散的民族悲情，决定了韩国人身上强烈的危机意识。这种国民性格，韩国人称为“han”意识——“恨”。韩国人性格暴烈，态度决然，在事涉国家关系时的举国一心、同仇敌忾，也都源于此。
　　前几年有韩国民众集体切指，以表达对日本否认侵略罪行的愤慨。访韩前夕，同样也有切指、自焚的消息传来。据本刊记者的采访了解，韩国主流知识界也不赞同这种激愤行动，但却都表示理解：“韩国是个小国，如果我们自己做事磨蹭，开会研究，那事情都过去了，谁还会理你呢？”
　　韩国电影业也一度落后，1980、1990年代，韩国人最熟悉的电影明星不是美国人，就是成龙。这也是好莱坞电影全球攻略下的常态：除了印度、法国和香港，哪个地方不是岌岌可危？
　　可韩国人偏偏说不！1997年，在导演林泽权的带领下，数百名韩国电影人到美国大使馆前集体抗议，削发明志。其中就有今天韩国最著名的几位导演 ：姜帝圭(本刊上期报道过的《太极旗飘扬》导演)、金基德(近几年频频摘取世界电影大奖的导演)等。
　　这种危机意识和行动哲学，在兴建汉城-釜山高速公路过程中体现得淋漓尽致。1970年代的朴正熙时代，基于加快道路交通建设的需要，朴决定上马该工程。按正常工期，得4年半才能完工。朴正熙不干：哪能等那么久！一定要两年完工。结果还真在两年内建成了(代价是质量受损，路面不时需要翻修)。
　　危机意识的形成，有外因也有内因——要想形成真正现代意义上的独立民族国家，除了政治地缘共同体、经济共同体，韩国必须要促成文化共同体的意识形成。对这个缺少原创文化、长期处于政治附庸地位的国家(日据时代结束后，又受美日的控制和影响)来说，危机意识，是韩国民族国家意识觉醒的有效催化剂。
　　也许只有这样，我们才能理解这些事实：2002年世界杯上韩国人那种山呼海啸般的集体狂热；金融风暴时共纾国难的“献金运动”。
　　奋斗精神
　　赴韩国前，请教退休的中国前驻韩外交官、北大教师白锐先生，他说他常给韩国留学生讲：“韩国是你们的父兄用肩膀扛起来的。”韩国年纪在四五十岁以上的一辈男子，普遍身材不高，和当代年轻人相比，恰成鲜明对照。
　　在汉城乘地铁，会发现一个有趣现象：越晚地铁里人越多，到12点停开的那一班，简直如超市般热闹。其中固然有韩国的公司职员下班后喜欢结伴喝酒的原因，也与韩国人加班工作、工时超长有关。据说“过劳死”这个词，最早就是从韩国传播开的。
　　在汉城，如果晚上九十点钟跟当地朋友联系，不管是大学教授、记者，还是公司职员，很多人都还在办公室。街上行人皆健步如飞，动作快捷，有如香港的金融中心中环一带。
　　一般韩国人对中国人有个印象：“慢慢来。”是否误读且不论，恰从另一面表明了韩国人的行动哲学。
　　汉城的中国朋友讲了件事：一家设在韩国的合资企业，总经理由中方人员担任。上班第一天，他比9：30分的正常上班时间提早了5分钟，发现所有职员都到了。第二天，觉得不好意思的他提早了10分钟，没想到员工还是个个在场。熟悉韩国人的工作节奏后，为了让员工多些休息，这位总经理只好准时上班。
　　著名的“企业家皇帝”、韩国过去最大的企业——现代集团的创始人郑周永曾说过一句话，恰当地表达了韩国人的急迫感：“韩国有什么？我们没有土地，没有资源，有的只是我们的国民和双手！”
　　危机意识，再加上韩国国民的奋斗精神，带来了韩国经济的惊人崛起。
　　1970、1980年代的“汉江奇迹”不必再说。以三星公司为例。5年前，现代汽车还被认为是“低价车”的代名词，价廉而质次。而仅去年，在竞争最为激烈的美国市场上，现代汽车就销售了419，000辆，比1998年增长了360%。在中国，投产不过两年的北京现代汽车，销量已跃居今年一季度中国市场之首。业内人士公认：自1998年起现代汽车是世界主要汽车生产商中，成长最为迅速的企业。
　　三星公司同样如此。1997年的金融危机中，三星也受到重创，负债170亿美元，几乎像大宇公司一样申请破产。可三星公司最终绝处求生，不仅摆脱韩国经济衰退的不利影响，还成功跻身世界企业五百强之列。
　　在经济领域之外，韩国人同样在政体改革、文化、体育、电影电视等方面，爆发出惊人的创造力。
　　知识分子参与
　　韩国有个名词——“386世代”，特指那些1960年代出生，1980年代投身韩国民主化运动、如今40岁左右的知识分子。这些在青年时代为自由民主流过血泪和汗水的一代，是韩国社会的中坚力量。
　　韩国的民主化运动，不仅表现为要求结束军政府威权统治、转向民主政体的政治运动，还包括：
　　为千万产业工人争取合理薪酬、劳动时间、合理保障制度的工人运动；
　　要求男女平权、保障女性就业、受教育、参政权利的女性解放运动；
　　以及1970年代开始的文艺大众化运动(类似于1930年代中国文化界以街头话剧、漫画、黑板报等为特色的抗日救亡宣传活动，同样是深入民众，以文艺演出的方式唤醒民众参与)等。
　　这些有力推动了韩国历史进程的社会运动，其动员、发起和组织者，往往是韩国的广大学生和知识分子。
　　本刊上期《发现韩国》专辑中报道的金敏基(音乐家、戏剧导演)、韩明淑(政治家、国会议员)、任钟皙(学生领袖、国会议员)等，以及对我们访韩给予很大帮助的白元淡教授(翻译家)等人，就是他们中的卓越代表。
　　而他们共同的精神源头之一，应该是金大中先生。这位诺贝尔和平奖获得者，早年留学美国，本可以“独善其身”，过上脱离大众苦难的高级知识分子生活，却毅然投身民主化运动，其间历尽艰辛——牢狱、流放、绑架、暗杀……但他“虽九死而不悔”，成为备受韩国民众拥戴的标志性人物。本刊曾想联系采访他，惜未能遂愿。
　　今天的韩国社会已步入多元化时代，当年的“386世代”，也走上了不同的人生路。但要求进步和改革，仍然是韩国知识阶层的主流声音。
　　2002年，坚持温和改革路线、代表自由派立场的卢武铉当选为韩国总统，就以“386世代”为选民基础。其竞选团队和内阁成员里，也活跃着大量“386世代”的身影。
　　去年，韩国国会相继通过几个法案：一是彻底清算“韩奸”的《日占期间亲日行为真相查明特别法》，开列具体行为18种，甚至要编“韩奸词典”；一是《舆论改革法》，基于新闻自由是社会基石的进步理念，法令规定反对新闻控制和垄断，国家募集资金，补助、扶持那些经济困难的报社发展，以促进新闻竞争。
　　这些有鲜明正义立场的法令，如没有那些秉持进步理念、坚持对历史负责态度的议员的推动，想来难以轻易通过。
　　让人惊异的是，在去年的韩国国会议员选举中，一个具有鲜明社会主义立场的政党——民主劳动党一跃而成为第三大党。在全球左翼运动陷入低潮、左翼政党支持率下降的背景下，这着实令人惊异。这与文化知识界的支持不无关系。该党选举前就得到了韩国数百电影人的公开声援，表态支持他们的竞选纲领。其中有以作品《老男孩》在今年柏林电影节上获奖的导演朴赞旭，重量级演员崔民植等。
　　不管如何评价这一现象，韩国人这种强劲的参政热情，参与社会事务的愿望，知识分子式的批判立场，确实值得尊重。
　　过去，韩国的进步知识分子身体力行地推动了韩国的民主转型。今天，在参与社会建构方面，他们仍然在发出强有力的声音。比如由文化界推动、金大中总统在任期间提出的“21世纪以文化产业立国”的国策，今天已成了韩国的重要发展路向。
　　这在知识工具化、价值理性让位于工具理性、知识界越来越边缘化的世界性大趋势面前，多少是个异数。
　　他山之石，可以攻玉。
　　希望本刊的这次韩国之旅，能多少帮您解除一些疑问。

解放军新型轰炸机登场

近段时间来，西方部分媒体和研究机构推出了“中国威胁论”的最新版本——中国的空中力量威胁。他们无视中国主动提升军事透明度的种种举措，反而将之视为中国对西方的示威。2007年2月，美国国际战略评估中心副主任，中国军事问题专家理查?费舍尔撰文声称中国已经研制了轰-6的最新改进型，并称解放军空军将拥有威胁关岛美军的能力。本刊（《国际展望》杂志）非常关注美国部分媒体和研究机构近期的恶炒，特综述此文，以飨读者。本刊并非赞同费舍尔的观点，亦非证实其内容，仅供参考。

2007年2月7日，理查·费舍尔发表了一篇名为《中国新轰炸机》的文章。文章称，今年1月初，互联网上出现了一些照片，这些照片显示中国的轰-6中型轰炸机又出现了新的改进型。这一改进型就两个重要特徵，其一是有更大的发动机进气口，显示该型飞机安装了更新的，推力更大的发动机；其二是机翼下共有6个挂架。这些挂架可以挂载中国自主研制的新型巡航导弹以及新的精确制导弹药。这些改进使老旧的轰-6的攻击潜能得到最大的提升。费舍尔认为，轰-6新改进型的出现标志着解放军空军已经将远端空中打击平台列为其现代化建设的重点，而且未来，中国在战略轰炸机方面将会投入更大的财力、物力。

轰-6K型

费舍尔声称，一位中国的消息人士暗示，轰-6K是在2000年开始研制的。该机拥有更大的发动机进气口，这标志着采用了新的推力更大的发动机。一些西方的报告推测，轰-6K型采用的新发动机可能是12000公斤推力的D-30KP型涡扇发动机(伊尔-76型运输机的发动机)，相对於老式轰-6安装的9500公斤推力的WP-8型涡喷发动机而言，轰-6K型的发动机性能大大提高。更大的推力和更高的燃烧效率将会让轰-6K拥有更大的有效载荷和更远的作战半径。
目前，轰-6轰炸机的作战半径在1800-2200公里。大部分西方武器专家推测：D-30型发动机加上机体外形的空气动力学改进和在武器挂载位置增加副油箱，轰-6K能轻而易举地将作战半径提高到3000公里，甚至更远......

未来发展之一：精确制导弹药和空间武器

第一阶段将是对轰-6K型的再改进，以执行更准确的攻击任务和空间战任务。轰-6K前部机身的重新设计为引入新的光学瞄准设备留下了充足空间，这些新的观瞄设备既可以嵌入到机身内部，也可以通过瞄准吊舱形式安装。轰-6K可以通过自身机载感测器或地面/空中感测器接收资料资讯，主要证据是该机明显改进了驾驶员座舱，采用了6个数位式多功能显示器。加上未来可能配备的功能更强大的新型雷达，轰-6K肯定将具备全天候作战能力，可发射GPS制导型或镭射制导型精确制导弹药......

中国下一代战略轰炸机

费舍尔认为，中国有可能向俄罗斯购买图-22M3“逆火”轰炸机作为解放军空军的下一代战略轰炸机。他声称，2003年，媒体报道了俄罗斯决定向中国出售图-22M3型“逆火”战略轰炸机的消息。图-22M3“逆火”战略轰炸机能以超音速飞行，作战半径为4000公里，可以携带各种导弹和精确制导炸弹。费舍尔称，一些西方军事专家在2005年中期告诉他，俄罗斯和中国事实上已经对这笔交易进行了谈判。俄罗斯已经有两个团的图-22M3战略轰炸机处於停飞状态，等待退役。显然，这些图-22M3战略轰炸机比较适合用来交易。

另一个引发费舍尔猜测中国购买图-22M3的事件是，2005年8中俄首次举行的“和平使命”大型联合军事演习中，史无前例地出现了图-22M3战略轰炸机的身影。但是，此後并没有关於中国正在与俄罗斯供应商进一步商谈“图-22M3战略轰炸机出口”的进一步报导，而与此同时印度预计将购买少量图-22M3战略轰炸机，装备印度海军航空兵部队......

未来发展之三：新型无人轰炸机

2006年珠海航空展的一大特徵就是，第一次出现了中国未来无人机和无人战斗机的概念模型。最值得注意的是渖阳飞机制造公司推出的“暗剑”无人机，从外观上看该机是一种超音速鸭翼——三角翼结合的无人战斗机，展示介绍板上宣称该机可以执行“对空战斗任务”。费舍尔称，“暗剑”亮相令很多人感到非常惊奇，渖阳飞机制造公司或其他中国航空企业此前还从未展出过如此先进的无人战斗机模型。

相比之下，美国在经过最初的热情之後，在研制无人战斗机的计划上一拖再拖。在最新的四年一度“国防评估报告”中，美国空军认为新型有人轰炸机和新型无人轰炸机的设计工作可能要到2018年才能开始。由此，费舍尔得出结论，除非中国在电脑和资料链技术方面取得重大突破，否则中国还是有可能在发展空对空无人战斗机之前，先发展一种无人攻击机。来源：《国际展望》杂志

中国空军上校：谁失去了太空，谁就失去了未来

太空是战争最后的高地 失去太空者没有未来

全世界都在谈论信息化战争的问题。但大部分国家和军队的注意力仍集中在传统作战空间常规武器平台和系统的信息化技术的改造和构建上。就在这只见树木不见森林的一片混沌中，世界军事按照自己的发展规律，已悄悄穿越了传统的作战空间，进入一个深不可测的全新领域。

1月22日美空军参谋长迈克尔·莫斯利将军签署的新版《太空行动》毫不掩饰美国独霸太空的野心，强调巩固美国军事航天优势地位，允许“先发制人”攻击他国卫星或地面指挥站，剥夺对手太空对抗的能力。此前6年间，美国已在科罗拉多州施里弗空军基地进行了3次太空战演习。据最新的消息，美国准备在今年3月份，再进行一次太空战演习。有军事分析家认为，如果把太空战这种新型战争样式当作一种新式武器来看，经过20世纪冷战年代漫长的孕育和21世纪国际政治、军事格局及高新技术的催生，现在它已经接近正式定型了。

在几百公里甚至上万公里的太空，一双双深蓝色的眼睛已经把人类的战场看得清清楚楚

人类走到哪里便把战争带到哪里的历史事实让关于太空战的话题不绝于耳。一则因为这的确是未来战争发展的必然趋势；二则截至目前，真正意义上的太空战争还没有发生过，这不免让枕戈待旦的人们充满紧张和好奇。

如果从头梳理美国近20年来所向披靡的战争，我们就会发现，隐藏在胜利背后的太空因素十分突出：海湾战争，美国动用卫星100余颗；科索沃战争，美国及盟国动用70余颗卫星；阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争中，美国也动用了50余颗卫星。正是因为有了这些卫星，美国实现了夜晚单向透明，实现了远距离精确打击，实现了数字铰链，并最终使战争呈现出“三非”――时下非常时髦的名词――特点：非线性、非接触、非对称。

看看阿富汗发生的事我们就明白，当太空力量介入现代常规战争，战争的样式和结果会是什么样子。我们一定对20年前苏联红军的折戟沉沙记忆犹新。所以，我们就对这样一幕场景非常难忘了：一个漆黑的夜晚，美国侦察卫星锁定了几个逃跑的塔利班士兵，因为其中一个人是大个子，看上去很像本·拉登。一枚联合直接攻击炸弹而不是一枚洲际导弹，在卫星的导引下，准确地飞向目标。

有些人只看到美国的飞机在阿富汗上空炸来炸去，而没有看到几百公里甚至上万公里的太空，一双双美国式的深蓝色的眼睛已经把战场看得清清楚楚――

佛罗里达坦帕湾，风景迷人的海滩上，棕榈树随风摇曳。美军中央司令部――阿富汗战争美军指挥中心就坐落在这里。作战室里，指挥官们像度假的游客悠闲地欣赏电影一样，观看并谈论着来自世界各地、主要是阿富汗的图像，然后由弗兰克斯上将对全球美军发出打击塔利班的命令。通过卫星，美军可以对监控区的每一个人进行跟踪。阿富汗崇山峻岭的每一个山洞都清楚地显示在巨大的屏幕上。攻击指令下达给巴基斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦机场和印度洋上的美军航母、美国本土的飞机，甚至情报人员。

由于卫星的参战，飞机也不再是像越南战争一样，飞临敌人头顶，雨点般的普通炸弹画着抛物线尖叫着落下。美军特种部队用激光把地面目标“绘制”出来发给卫星。卫星通过数据链将数据分发给攻击机。然后精确制导炸弹或巡航导弹通过全球卫星定位系统，依靠自身操纵，准确扑向目标。

如果说海湾战争、科索沃战争还是以天空对地面、战场呈俯冲态势的话，到了阿富汗战争，已经是以太空对山洞的完全垂直态势。前北约科索沃战争指挥官克拉克将军不假思索地说：海湾战争的模式过时了。

凭借着太空系统支持下的信息技术以及这些技术和战术的完善统一，使美国军事力量与它的对手以及潜在对手相比，具有了压倒性的优势。也正是有着这种压倒性的军事优势，美国的右翼政客们在国际事务中时常流露出狂妄的自信，其使用武力的门槛也越来越低，甚至呈现军事手段外交化的特点。西方媒体评论认为，要不是美军占领伊拉克意外遭遇游击战的老难题，谁也不知道美国战车今天已经开到了哪里。

鹰是食物链中的最高端，太空是否就是战争“食物链”中的最高端呢？

相当程度上，由于20年来美国的战争表演，世界兴起了新军事革命。举世公认的世界新军事革命的核心是信息化。而作战系统网络化又是信息化的核心，即人们耳熟能详的C4ISR（指挥、控制、通信、计算机、情报、监视、侦察的英文简称）系统。在伊拉克战争期间，美军正是依靠战略、战区、战役、战场4级C4ISR系统，通过数据链把空天地海、本土统帅部、前方司令部和战场上每一个士兵和每一个作战平台连为一体，从“战斧”巡航导弹的海上“斩首”、“地堡克星”的空中“斩首”，到地面“灰狐”影子部队的特种“斩首”，反应灵敏，随心所欲，灵活采用各种有效的作战方式，以最短的时间、最小的代价、最快的速度、最大的战果，“结束了战争”。

如果说由美国牵头的世界新军事革命是以信息化为特征的话，那么，这场革命的终点应在太空。在C4ISR系统中，几乎所有方面都依赖于太空那些各司其职的卫星。毫无疑问，卫星系统是获取信息的源头。有人把这个系统比作一张挂在太空钩子上的天网，其实它更像照亮大战场的天灯。谁有了这样一盏灯，谁就能把自己和对方看得清清楚楚，而同时却让对方的眼睛睁不开。战场上，机动权就是军队的生存权。你无法发现和控制对手的机动权，你就无法消灭和战胜敌人，还可能被敌人所战胜。这就是美国在越南和朝鲜战争中的教训，也是近年来美国战争胜利的经验。美国为什么现在有了这样的经验？就是因为现在的美国有了这样的太空力量和以其为基础的C4ISR系统，可以让自己耳聪目明同时却让对方耳聋眼瞎。这样美国就可以在不流血或少流血的情况下，轻松地赢得战场的胜利。

就像鹰是所有食物链中最高端一样，太空也处在战争“食物链”中的最高端。没有空中优势，就不会有地面和海上的优势；没有信息优势，就不会有空中优势；而没有太空优势，就不会有信息优势。制太空权成为制空权、制海权、制信息权的前提。正因为如此，有着一定军事实力的国家不约而同地把战争的首要战场瞄准太空，以收事半功倍之效。可以想象，对抗双方都瞄准太空的结果是战争必然首先从太空打起来。

美国并不只有NBA篮球争霸赛和拳王挑战赛，它还有一个独霸太空的军事行动计划

美国非常清楚，它迄今为止取得的所有的胜利有着很大的运气的成分――它所有的对手都没有太空实力。它用自己的太空实力，剥夺了对方的空中实力，再用自己的空中实力，去剥夺对方的地面军队的实力，运用不对称原理，一个个地剥夺了对方的常规战争能力。

它已经这样拿下了海地、巴拿马、格林纳达、南联盟、阿富汗、伊拉克等等它不喜欢的政府，还几次严惩了它不喜欢的利比亚。它还在准备拿下或严惩另外一些它不喜欢的同时又是弱小的对手。

但是，美国为自己预备的将来的对手并不总是像那些过去的和眼前的对手一样弱小。美国人知道，今天拥有太空能力的并不是美国一家。一旦拥有太空能力的国家之间发生冲突或战争，太空战争将不可避免。在《全球作战：21世纪空军远景》中美国空军明确提出要作好准备，一旦需要则毫不犹豫进行太空作战。

看来，美国并不只有NBA篮球争霸赛和拳王挑战赛，它还有一个毫不隐瞒的独霸太空的军事行动计划。这是一个虽然和其他比赛同样精彩但却无法让人喝彩的节目，可是全世界又不能不全神贯注。当美国还在进行激光打卫星试验时，就有人预言美国是在打开“潘多拉盒子”。迄今，世界各国成功发射4500多个航天器，其中2150多个在轨道上运行，大部分为军事用途。

在相对和平的烟幕下，世界大国对太空的角逐一直没有停，有时是轰轰烈烈大张旗鼓，有时是悄无声息紧锣密鼓。世界第一颗卫星是苏联1957年10月4日发射的。1958年美国的卫星上天。之后，军备竞赛在整个20世纪60年代和70年代如火如荼地展开。从本质意义上说，美、苏当年的军备竞赛是一场太空竞赛。虽然美国后来“把苏联摔倒在月球上”，但是这场竞赛并没有结束。美国《空军2025》研究报告认为，在未来战争中，军事对抗双方很有可能将斗争的空间向“远地”拓展，甚至达到星际空间。

当年欧洲由于在工业革命中超过东方，而独领风骚；后来美国和欧洲在电子技术革命中超过苏联，傲睨群雄；现在，美国又在以太空领域为高端的信息化的新赛跑中，超越欧洲和全世界。
太空时代已经到来，太空战离人类还远吗？

从美国在近年来战争中展现出来的太空优势，到它不断的NMD试验成功以及澳大利亚、日本、欧洲的纷纷加入美国倡导的全球导弹防御系统，再加上还有美国令人眼花缭乱的太空战略举措，所有这些都在说明一个问题：太空时代已经到来。

太空战场的军事活动不受地球、国界、气候等因素的影响。通信卫星可以使上至宇宙、下至大洋海底所有的军兵种联为一体。导航卫星可以为地上、海上、空中、水下所有的兵器或士兵精确定位。太空武器可以光速作战，对于数万公里的目标，可以在瞬间予以消灭。

1月24日出版的最新一期《简氏防务周刊》报道说，美大型军火商已经开始生产100千瓦级的激光武器。它可分别部署在太空、飞机、战舰和陆地，利用定向发射的激光束攻击目标，快速而精确，几秒之间就可以使目标化为灰烬。

美国负责研制新一代激光武器的主要科学家是一对父子。父亲唐·罗伯逊早年在空军参与武器发展计划，包括为F-5“自由战士”式歼击机研制激光制导炸弹，儿子史提夫则是美国太空武器专家。父子兵接力上场，把美国军事带进一个杀敌不见血的激光时代，同时也形象地说明了美国从天空到太空的持续不断的努力。

但是，这还不是唯一的、更不是最后的计划。前国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德曾指示国防部研究的“对实施全球快速打击有价值的次轨道太空飞行器”能以15倍音速以上的速度，在100公里的高度投放武器。由于它的速度和高度，它投放的武器不需要安装弹头，到达地面时威力就已经可以击穿地下400米的掩体。根据设想，这种“太空飞行器”一天可以往返3次。它可以像普通飞机一样起飞，在高空可达到十几倍音速以上的速度，能直接进入地球轨道，成为航天器，然后又可以像普通飞机一样重返大气层，在机场着陆。它可以作为战略轰炸机、战略侦察机和远程截击机使用，比现有的航天飞机具有更大的成本优势和战斗威力。有报道称，它“可以以武器攻击地球上任何地点的目标”。

有军事分析家认为，这种空天飞机一旦用于实战，将从根本上改变太空与天空的概念，也使迄今为止的所有关于空战的理论瞬间成为过时。据称，美国还有研制航天母舰的设想，让其作为空天飞机起降和运载的平台及宇宙飞船、航天飞机停靠的太空基地。

由于整体实力和总体战略的差异，俄罗斯对未来太空战的设想没有美国那么“豪华”。在有国防部长、总参谋长参加的俄罗斯军事科学院50周年大会上，俄罗斯军事专家认为，未来战争将在太空至地面的立体展开。战争将从航空航天部队集团的打击开始，将旨在消灭军队和武器的管理系统，然后可能展开电子斗争，摧毁防空系统。整个国家同其工业设施、交通基础设施等都将变成战场。

西方各国军事理论家设想的太空战模式也体现了鲜明的全维对抗的特点：如太空支援陆海空军作战，包括天对地、海，地、海对天，天对空，空对天；反卫星作战，包括拦截、捕获、布设天雷等；弹道导弹突袭；反弹道导弹；以太空为战场、以天基兵器为手段进行的太空格斗，如太空保障战、太空封锁战、破袭战、防御战、电子战等等，不一而足。
谁失去了太空，谁就失去了未来

以《时间简史》闻名于世的霍金认为，因为地球面临气候变暖、疾病、战争、灾难等挑战，人类将来的出路在于开发太空。人类20年内可能在月球立足，40年内在火星建成永久基地。如果这一预言有着某种科学性，那么我们又要回过头看了――历史表明：向边界之外的未知世界迁移，总是伴随着大国的崛起。不同的迁移方式往往决定着移民集团及其母国的命运。18世纪时法、德人口远多于英国，但因为制海权在英国手中，在移民北美的过程中，最后却是讲英语的民族战胜了讲法语的民族。这一结果在过去100年的国际政治中有着怎样重要的作用是不言而喻的。从迁移方式来说，往外太空长距离移民和当年跨海移民相仿佛，而如今的太空探索计划也类似于地理大发现时代的航海探险，所以美国有一架航天飞机以当年库克船长乘坐的“奋进”号命名就不足为怪了。可以说，现在的美国太空技术霸权一如当年英国的制海权。假设若干年后人类真的兴起向外太空移民浪潮，历史会不会又重演当年的一幕呢？

美国是在太空军事化方面走得最远、走得最快的国家。但它的危机感比谁都强烈。五角大楼公开说：我们不得不停止去想明天，而去想后天。

杜黑在《制空权》里有一句名言：在空中被击败，就是战败。现在我们则可以说，未来，在太空被击败，就是永远的失败。战争的高度在几乎永久的时间里，将停留在太空，战争的结果也将几乎永远地固定在那里。一战后，德国卧薪尝胆，在20年的时间里突破《凡尔赛条约》的限制，秘密地准备起一支复仇的大军。但到了太空时代，这将不可能。这是因为，太空将时刻布满监视的眼睛，还将高悬着“达摩克里斯之剑”。那些在太空战争中败下阵来的国家可能永远都不再有翻身的机会，真正的万劫不复。

想想在伊战中美国为什么不需要夺取制空权，伊拉克就如此被摧枯拉朽？那是因为美国和英国对它搞了12年的“禁飞区”。美、英不是靠飞机完成“禁飞”的，而是靠太空那鹰眼一样犀利和警觉的卫星，飞机不过是拳头和子弹。

看看伊拉克国土的山河破碎，看看南联盟国家的分崩离析，看看塔利班政权的灰飞烟灭，想想未来也许会有更多活着就已经“死去”的国家和民族，也许就不会有多少人对这样一个武断的结论――谁失去了太空，谁就失去了未来提出疑义了。

80年前，杜黑就说：“胜利只向那些能预见战争特性变化的人微笑，而不是向那些等待变化发生才去适应的人微笑。在这个战争样式迅速变化的时代，谁敢走新路，谁就能取得新战争手段克服旧的带来的无可估量的利益。”

把眼光放远些、放高些吧！接着杜黑的话，我要说：太空是战争最后的高地。（作者为空军上校，空军某部军事理论研究员）作者： 戴旭

德意志伟大的心灵

当德意志的暴君们忙于争权夺利，压榨人民的时候，很少有人给予这些音乐大师应有的尊敬和帮助，却把他们视为提供享乐或者附庸风雅的仆役。在魏玛公国，大公竟让巴赫与仆从、厨师呆在一起，当他被叫到莱比锡时，一位自以为很有鉴赏力的官员居然说：“由于我们找不到最好的音乐家，因此只好退而求其次。”
　　同样的命运也落到莫扎特头上，一个伯爵在他20岁时打了他，他跟一位大主教去维也纳，就餐的时候却不得不坐在仆役的下首，而他离开的时候，这位主教大人居然大骂他是无赖、流氓。
　　心灵受过类似伤害的贝多芬因此刻意保持自己的尊严，一位德国作家写道：“他处处希望自己的行为像一位君王那样，实际上他确实是。”
　　贝多芬是古典音乐的顶峰，是音乐世界的帝王，拿破仑用刀剑和炮火征服世界，而他用音乐和激情征服人心。他是战士，他用音乐挑战命运，在那首《命运交响曲》中，心灵的旋律化作战士的灵魂，不被狰狞的命运所压服，“扼住命运的咽喉”，抗争到底，用火一样的激情追求永远的胜利，而这一点和拿破仑太相似了。
　　1803年，贝多芬这个不屈的战士刚刚从死亡一样的打击中复苏过来，因为此前他的耳朵聋了，对音乐家来说，再也听不到音乐，听不到旋律，就像战士失去持剑的双手，画家失去观察世界的双眸，而他居然能从这样的打击中活过来，不能不说他具有德意志性格中的顽强与勇悍，失去了辨别声音的双耳，他只能用心去感知，但是他最伟大的作品恰恰都是在他耳聋之后诞生的，这实在是人类音乐史上的奇迹，他的确扼住了命运的咽喉。
　　贝多芬本人反对诸侯专制，拥护共和主义，他对所有君王不屑一顾，即使对拿破仑也是如此。
　　1803年底，贝多芬开始创作《第三交响曲》，他用铅笔在第一页写着：“为拿破仑而作”，同时将两个人的名字并列在一起：“拿破仑－路德维希.范.贝多芬”。此时的拿破仑正在欧洲横冲直撞，一个个封建王朝被他的战马踏得粉碎，贝多芬为他的每一场胜利而欢呼，他从拿破仑身上汲取斗志和音乐养分，所以这首交响曲是献给拿破仑的。但是很快情况发生了变化。
一年后的一天，贝多芬的一个学生冲进他的房间，大声喊：“拿破仑要做皇帝了。”
　　贝多芬惊呆了，他大喊道：“他难道只是一个微不足道的凡夫俗子吗？现在他也开始践踏人权，肆意妄为了！他希望居于万人之上，成为一个暴君”。于是他拿起《第三交响曲》，把第一页撕得粉碎，改名为《英雄交响曲》，在下面用意大利文写道：“为纪念一位伟大人物而作”。此后，他拒绝了拿破仑请他到巴黎的邀请。
贝多芬惊呆了，他大喊道：“他难道只是一个微不足道的凡夫俗子吗？现在他也开始践踏人权，肆意妄为了！他希望居于万人之上，成为一个暴君”。于是他拿起《第三交响曲》，把第一页撕得粉碎，改名为《英雄交响曲》，在下面用意大利文写道：“为纪念一位伟大人物而作”。此后，他拒绝了拿破仑请他到巴黎的邀请。
贝多芬惊呆了，他大喊道：“他难道只是一个微不足道的凡夫俗子吗？现在他也开始践踏人权，肆意妄为了！他希望居于万人之上，成为一个暴君”。于是他拿起《第三交响曲》，把第一页撕得粉碎，改名为《英雄交响曲》，在下面用意大利文写道：“为纪念一位伟大人物而作”。此后，他拒绝了拿破仑请他到巴黎的邀请。
　德意志的心灵是复杂的。对此，没有谁比歌德的认识更深入了。
　　在一间烟雾腾腾，摆满各种实验器具的书房里，一个满脸络腮胡的男子穿着灰色的长袍，一会书写，一会沉思，一会激情四射，一会又颓废得想自杀，书房既是他生命中的战场，又好像是束缚他的牢笼。
　　他既信仰上帝，又怀疑上帝，他是魔鬼撒旦的门徒，有时又极度讨厌魔鬼。他对世界充满疑问和好奇，却总是找不到自己。他就是歌德笔下的浮士德，德意志灵魂最大也是最贴切的象征，一个充满激情而永远找不到安宁的证明。
　　魔鬼默菲斯特与上帝打了个赌，认为人类无法满足的追求终必导致其自身的堕落。而上帝却认为人类尽管会在追求中犯错误，但最终能够得到真理。于是魔鬼到人间去诱惑浮士德。50岁的老学者浮士德接受了魔鬼的契约，默菲斯特成为浮士德的仆人，帮他获得一切；但当浮士德表示满足的一瞬间奴役解除，浮士德的灵魂归恶魔所有。
　　浮士德经历了书斋生活、爱情生活、政治生活、追求古典美和建功立业五个阶段。当他最后面对自己征服世界、移山填海的伟大功绩，不由自主地说：“真美呀，请停留一下！”一言既出，他倒地死去，灵魂眼看要被魔鬼占有，终被天使拯救，天使们高歌：“自强不息者，到头皆能救”。
　　德国作家路德维希这样评价浮士德：“在他身上集中了德国人精神世界的主要因素：雄心勃勃，又时有怀疑；坚信奇迹，又——人们几乎要说，富于浪漫主义。对于永远也不会成为信念的无穷世界的追求，以及思想上从逻辑，清醒到神秘，不可知的不断变化飞跃，这是德国人在思考问题和驱除恶魔中的两股同样的力量，构成了德国人的内心世界，他们对外梦想统治世界，对内转向音乐。”
　　是的，在歌德笔下的浮士德集中了德意志灵魂的秘密，他们在精神上激情勃发、无拘无束，在生活中却喜欢循规蹈矩、一丝不苟，在精神上他们在上帝与魔鬼之间摇摆，在现实世界，他们却绝对服从上司的命令；他在精神上为人性而歌唱，但在实际上却残暴不仁，为了所谓的胜利不择手段。德意志民族尚武的传统，追求力量和权势的本能，以及上千年来形成的深埋于德意志灵魂深处的不安全感，再加上辉煌的过去与长期分裂的政治现实以及倍受压抑的生活，这三者之间产生的强烈反差，这一切都撕扯着德意志的灵魂，让他的从心灵到举止都充满了分裂、矛盾，但是无穷的欲望又将这些统一到一具躯体内。
　　德意志的欲望无论在精神世界还是在现实世界，都产生了让人瞠目结舌的结果。在精神领域，对精神权力的不懈追求使德意志人创造了无数的精神成果和文化成就，而在现实世界，他们的欲望成为对权力和征服的渴望，体现到行动上就是神经质的战斗和对领土攫取的冲动，当然他们美其名曰：“拓展生存空间”。
　　歌德说，弱点和长处，黑暗与光明来自于一种力量，一个根源。德意志民族也是这样。在社会生活中，由于德意志的性格一方面向黑影和混乱发展，直到它的国家政权成为世界的罪人，另一方面，它又使德国人发展到如此成功的高度，以至全世界都不停地发出惊叹。在他们身上，体现了德意志人炉火纯青的创造力和毁灭力，而且这两点居然集中在一具躯体上。
歌德对浮士德的描写具有寓言性，其实不管是查理曼、亨利四世、路德还是后世的德意志人，包括歌德本人身上都有着浮士德的影子。只是他比浮士德更有自由精神。

在对待拿破仑的问题上，歌德跟贝多芬就有许多不同之处。他没有撕掉献给拿破仑的作品，因为他根本没写过。但当他出现在拿破仑面前时，却让这位欧洲霸王惊呼：“天哪，一个真正的人！”拿破仑从未给予任何人如此高的评价，他把歌德视为伟人，他也从未想到过

匍匐在他脚下的德意志居然还有如此人物。

即使歌德三次顶撞了他，拿破仑依然钦佩他，即使这是拿破仑十几年来第一次遭人抢白，他还邀请歌德去巴黎，歌德却像贝多芬一样拒绝了。
　　可以说，在德意志全体都处在被征服的沮丧时，是歌德和贝多芬这些文化艺术大师用自己的作品，挽回了德意志的尊严。在他们以前，德意志的文化不被人重视，自他们之后，德意志的地位难以毁灭，因为世界文明殿堂里有他们光辉的贡献。而德意志民族的凝聚力，就在他们所创造的文化血脉里。
是的，思想和文化的统一是一个民族国家形成的最根本基础，而一点，德意志的文化巨人们做得实在是太出色了。
　　一位法国历史学家如此评价：“能够发现普遍的思想，这是德国知识分子的能力。德国人在1780年到1830年提出了我们时代的思想。没有一个国家或一个时期，能出现像德国人把思想发展到如此高度的能力。”

日本传统体育运动下的日本人

今天下午，我们要拍摄东京大学学生武道比赛。在日本武道馆，我们亲眼看到了这种神秘的运动，据说这种运动的精神就是日本人所推崇的武士道精神。所谓武士道精神对日本和亚洲来说是一种复杂的话题，我觉得武士精神是一把双刃剑，就像日本武士所佩戴的刀具一样，既有指向对手的长长的，闪着寒光的武士刀，又有为自己准备的锋利短小的匕首---已备失败时切腹之用，对人对己都显得那么决绝。

随后我们去相扑馆又目睹了日本的“国技”---相扑的风采，不过可惜的是，我们无法进入馆内拍摄。据说这种竞技获胜的方法很简单，就是把对方推出圈外或摔倒对方，但对相扑手而言，却并不容易达到。相扑是日本的国粹，1909年被日本政府定为国技。比赛规则简单，实际的比赛过程非常繁复，程序冗长而又一丝不苟，甚至有点宗教意识的味道。硕大而笨重的比赛，却辅以精细的程序，裁判还时常挥动小扇，这一切都像菊与刀一样不协调，但这得却就是相扑，就是日本。相扑运动等级森严，选手分10个级别，低级选手要伺候高级选手。但在赛场上，相扑却不按体重组织比赛级别，日本人似乎很愿意看到以小胜大，以弱胜强，就算你是横纲，一旦被低于自己级别的对手击败，观众也会把无数的欢呼送给那个获胜者，而把坐垫扔向失败者，哪怕这个失败者曾无数次地带给他们欢乐。在这出狂欢般的盛宴中诠释着强者至上的理念，这不是一个能够欣赏失意英雄的民族，在他们看来也许英雄之冠只属于胜利者

《大国崛起》第七集--百年维新

大约在150年前，位于太平洋西岸的岛国日本，在西方殖民者坚船利炮的胁迫下，遭遇了巨大的生存危机。出人意料的是，它将此作为自己弃旧图新、迎头赶上的历史机遇，并最终使自己成为东方世界第一个摆脱西方大国的欺凌、顺利实现现代化的国家，成为唯一一个挤入帝国列强行列，靠侵略扩张在自己的国土外建立过殖民地的亚洲国家。

今天，这个面积只有37万平方公里的岛国，依然是世界第二大经济强国。
　　从渴望主宰自身的命运到渴望成为世界的主角，究竟是什么在主导这个岛国如同海潮般激荡起落的命运呢？
　　本集片名：第七集 百年维新
　　历史的巨变常常在一些不太起眼的地方留下难以抹去的印记。
　　横须贺，位于东京湾入口，日本近代史就是从这里开始的。
　　2003年，这座依山傍水、清秀怡人的小城举行了一次盛大的纪念活动，被纪念的是一个叫佩理的美国将军。从这些轻松友好的笑脸上，人们很难想象，150年前，正是这位将军用武力迫使日本打开了自己的国门，让这个岛国走上了一段充斥着悲剧和奇迹、混杂着屈服和刚强的历史。
　　1853年7月8日，刚刚跻身于强国之列的美国，派出东印度舰队司令佩理率领四艘全副武装的黑色大船，闯入了横须贺港。
　　为了开辟太平洋航线和抢占东方市场，佩理代表美国总统提出了开港通商的要求。这位不久前在美国和墨西哥的海战中大获全胜的将军十分自负，他对前来交涉的日本使者说，你们最好不要抵抗，因为一旦开战，结局只有一个，那就是美国必胜。
　　面对冒着黑烟的蒸汽战舰和盛气凌人的美国将军，日本人会做出什么样的选择呢？
　　此时的日本，已经度过了两百多年闭关锁国的时光，但是，它对外面的世界并非一无所知。在唯一的窗口长崎，当时世界上两个最富强的国家，中国与荷兰被允许往来通商。17世纪的世界霸主荷兰，让这个两千年来一直以中国为师的岛国兴起了“兰学”。日本的士族阶层纷纷用荷兰语，来研讨欧洲近代的天文、地理、医学等新兴学科，并由此了解到西方世界的发展。
　　而13年前在鸦片战争中受到英国军舰攻击的邻国大清帝国的遭遇，从另一个角度给了日本统治者一个新的信号。
　　采访：日本文明史学家 加藤周一
　　几千年来，日本几乎都在向中国学习，连中国都败给了对手，那么这样的对手,应该是非常强大的，这样的对手的出现，对日本来说也是一个冲击。
　　因此，当美国黑船压境时，尽管日本国内对选择开国还是开战有过争论，但最后还是做了很实际的考虑，日本人几乎是以欢迎的态度接受了佩理的要求。
　　佩理将军在展示武力之余，用电报机、钟表、望远镜、蒸汽机车和大炮向日本人展示了工业革命的成果。当一部小型蒸汽机车在专门搭建的轨道上开动起来的时候，围观的日本官员从飞转的车轮中真切地感受到了自己和大洋彼岸那个世界的差距。
　　采访：日本早稻田大学 名誉教授 依田熹家
　　当时幕府对于开国还是相当积极的，他们认为，按照当时的世界状况，日本如果自闭锁国是无法得到发展的，必须进入国际社会，并从中发展成为世界强国。
　　一天夜里，两个日本青年偷偷地爬上了美国黑船，用手比划着告诉佩理将军：他们想要随船到美国去，看看美国究竟为什么强大。这样做在当时的日本按律是要杀头的。
　　他们的举动让佩理非常惊讶，佩理在日记中写道：“这两个日本人的求学精神令我感动，如果日本人都像他们一样，日本一定会变得和美国一样强大。”
　　这两个渴望了解世界的青年人最终还是被送下了船。但随着国门的打开，越来越多的日本人关注起外面的世界。14年后，一个名叫涩泽荣一的年轻人获得了一次前往欧洲的机会。
　　1867年，27岁的涩泽荣一作为日本代表团的成员到了法国，参加巴黎万国博览会。
　　新奇的工业产品，取代了手工作坊的机械设备，西方的工业化程度让涩泽荣一大为震惊。他决定留下来，仔细考察欧洲各国的产业发展和经济制度。
　　采访：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 研究员 周见
　　涩泽荣一先是到了法国，后来又到了比利时，比利时的国王(利奥波德)二世在接见他们的时候讲，国家的强盛离不开工业，特别是钢铁的使用非常重要，欢迎日本到时能够购买和使用比利时的钢铁，涩泽荣一大为感慨，他说一个国家的国王在会见外国客人时，都不忘记推销本国的产品，可见工商业对西方国家是多么重要。
　　从小熟读《四书》、《五经》的涩泽荣一，和当时所有深受儒家文化影响的传统日本人一样，认为商人就是一幅惟利是图的形象。
　　比利时国王的一番话，让他固有的观念慢慢开始转变。
　　1868年11月，涩泽荣一带着全新的思想回到日本。此时的日本，已不是他离开时的那个国家。国家刚刚经历了一个重大的历史转折。
　　这一年，日本历史上第 124 位天皇——明治天皇，重新回到了国家的权力中心。
　　采访：中国清华大学历史系 副教授 刘晓峰
　　在日本神话中，据说是天照大神创造了日本，而天皇号称是天照大神的嫡系子孙，所以天皇拥有统治日本的法统，但是在实际历史上，从12世纪开始，大权一直旁落，旁落在拥有兵权的幕府将军手中，这种情况一直持续了600年，直到1868年，也就是黑船敲开日本国门的第15年。
　　美国黑船压境的傲慢和强势，凸现出幕府的软弱无能，来自外部的压力终于演变为内部变革的动力。最终，武士们以王政复古的名义推翻了幕府，扶持刚刚登基的明治天皇，建立起合法的新政府。14岁的明治天皇成为日本国的最高领袖。年轻的天皇所要领导的，是一个内忧外患、危机四伏的日本。
　　美国黑船叩开日本国门之后，迫使日本签订了历史上第一份不平等条约。此后不久，荷兰、俄国、英国和法国蜂拥而至，纷纷仿效，开始在这个岛国上争夺各自的利益。
　　和当时许多亚洲国家一样，开港之后的日本迅速成为西方商品的倾销市场和廉价原料的供应地，开港仅仅半年，日本黄金就外流了 100 万两，国内经济萧条，民怨四起。
　　年轻的新政府怎样才能带领日本走出濒临亡国的困境？
　　1868年4月15日，明治天皇颁布了《五条誓文》，这是一个推动国家变革，开启变法图强大幕的总纲领。从此，日本进入了一个被称为明治维新的时代。
　　【字幕：求知识于世界，大拯皇基】
　　采访：日本早稻田大学 名誉教授 依田熹家
　　明治维新可以说是日本实现现代化的一个出发点。
　　1868年11月回国的涩泽荣一，赶上了好时候。一年后，他进入明治政府的财政部门任职。在欧洲游历积累的经验和天生的理财能力，使涩泽荣一的仕途一路顺风。他直接参与了新政府的货币制度改革、废藩置县、发行公债等几乎所有重大政策的酝酿和制定。
　　就在政绩显著的涩泽荣一接连高升的时候，明治政府的一个重要举措，改变了日本，也改变了涩泽荣一的个人命运。
　　1871年，一支近百人的政府使节团从横滨港出发，前往欧美各国。使节团中包括49名明治高官，这个数字几乎是当时政府官员总数的一半。为了支撑这次庞大的出行，成立刚刚三年的明治政府拿出了当年财政收入的2%。
　　在一年零十个月的时间里，他们考察了欧美12 个国家。写下了长达百卷的考察实录。政府投入之大，官员级别之高，出访时间之长，在日本乃至亚洲国家与西方世界交往的历史上，岩仓使节团的出访都可称得上是一次前所未有的行动。
　　采访：中国日本史学会 会长 汤重南
　　日本的最高领导阶层，以岩仓为首的，访问欧美的这样一个代表团，最后用的是始惊、次醉、终狂三个词来概括，我觉得是非常准确的。始惊就是他们到了欧美，看到了西方发达的文物制度以后，那种吃惊的程度；次醉就是陶醉在西方这种先进的物质文明和精神文明之中；终狂就是下决心发疯似地学习西方一系列的文物制度，要使日本跟西方一样。
　　正是在德国，日本使节团似乎寻找到了自己国家的发展模式。刚刚完成国家统一的铁血宰相俾斯麦，在招待宴会上对他们说：如今世界各国，虽然都说要以礼仪相交，但那毕竟是表面文章，背地里实际上是以大欺小，以强凌弱。
　　这番话让日本人感同身受，他们不仅认同了俾斯麦的强权政治说，同时也醉心于德国的发展模式，那就是由国家来主导工业发展。
　　德国是当时欧洲发展最快的后发国家。几千年来，一直向强者学习的日本人，为自己找到了一个新的老师。
　　回国后主导日本工业化进程的，正是岩仓使节团的副团长、自称为“东洋俾斯麦”的大久保利通。
　　一百多年后的今天，大久保家族依然珍藏着大久保利通当年出访时从巴黎带回来的西式红皮椅子，还有他使用过的砚台和珍爱的中国紫砂茶壶。
　　这枚小小的印章，当年曾是大久保利通随身携带之物，诸多影响日本历史的政令都是用它来签发的。
　　回国后，大久保利通升任参议兼内务卿。这位掌握了明治政府实际大权的铁腕人物，带领日本开始了一段迫不及待的现代化急行军。
　　缫丝场是日本最早建立的官办工厂之一，政府从法国购置了缫丝设备，还重金聘请了法国技师。工厂就要开工了，却招不来工人。因为当时的很多日本人都认为，那些轰轰作响的机器会吸走人的精髓。
　　为了打消百姓的恐惧，明治政府想了一个办法：首先劝说士族高官的女儿进厂当女工。这些技术成熟的女工后来被派往全国各地，缫丝也成为日本最早进入国际市场的产品。
　　采访：日本文明史学家 加藤周一
　　我认为穆斯林国家和中国都有一个特点，对引进外国技术抵触很强，明治维新的时候，日本帝国大学国立大学的许多学科和诸多领域，短时间内全部实行了西化。这里积极的一面是效率很高，为了尽快达到国际先进水平，一切从零开始完全实行西化。实际上也证明了这样做效率确实很高。
　　按照大久保利通的殖产兴业计划，政府直接从西方拿来了法国式的缫丝场、德国式的矿山冶炼厂，英国式的军工厂。除了购买机械，政府还聘请了大量国外技师。当时，一个外籍专家的月薪最高可以达到两千日元，是明治政府高官的三倍多。
　　据估算，当时明治政府财政支出的五分之一，都投入到了兴办企业当中。
　　在开办国营工厂的同时，大久保利通还大力扶持民间企业。
　　三菱是日本最著名的商标之一。今天的日本国内有一百多家三菱企业，海外还有数百家三菱的分支机构。
　　而在1870年，三菱还只是一个拥有三艘小船的默默无名的小公司。但是，它很快获得了明治政府委托经营的13艘轮船和海上军事运输业务；一年后，政府干脆将这13艘轮船送给了三菱，每年还拨给经营补偿费；此后，政府又购买了邮政轮船公司的18条轮船，无偿交给三菱经营。
　　采访： 日本三菱经济研究所 常务理事 成田诚一
　　日本政府把这些事业交给民间企业去发展，就是说最初由政府实施，然后卖给逐渐培育成熟的民营企业来继续发展。日本一直是采取这种方式发展的。在这一过程中，不仅仅是三菱，三井、住友等公司都是相继从政府买下官营企业来发展的。
　　在政府的扶植下，三菱很快羽翼丰满，1875 年，大久保利通要求刚刚成立五年的三菱公司开辟日本到上海的航线。结果，用了不到一年时间，美国太平洋邮船公司、英国的半岛和东方航海公司就被逐出了这条航线，三菱公司独家垄断了日本到上海的航运业务。
　　1873年，33岁的涩泽荣一已经成为主管国家预算的大藏少辅，在众人眼里，他的仕途可谓前程似锦。但是，涩泽荣一却做出了一件在当时看来不可思议的事情：他递交了辞呈，要弃官从商。
　　采访：中国清华大学历史系 副教授 刘晓峰
　　(明治)维新之前的日本，商人的地位实际上并不是很高，涩泽荣一他弃官从商，等于说开了一代风气之先，就说叫大家一下子认识到，其实，经商也是很有地位的，很有地位的人可以去经商。
　　辞官后的涩泽荣一做的第一件事，就是组织创办了日本第一家股份制公司银行，并由此开始了自己极具传奇色彩的企业家生涯。他的企业组织活动逐渐向海运、造船、铁路、纺织、啤酒、化学肥料、矿山等产业部门全面展开。到19世纪80年代，涩泽荣一成为日本工商业界最为引人注目的人物。
　　迅速向工业化迈进的日本，在学习先进技术的同时，也开始模仿西方的生活方式。公历取代了农历，元旦取代了春节；天皇带头吃起了牛肉，官员们穿上了燕尾服；理发馆的生意开始忙碌起来，男人们剪掉发髻，修剪成西式短发。有一首打油诗这样形容：“敲敲短发蓬松的天灵盖，文明开化的声音就响起来”。
　　同一千多年前模仿中国唐朝都城长安建造起奈良一样，如今的日本人又在东京的银座建起了西化一条街。这里仿照欧美街市，盖起两层楼的洋式砖瓦房，街道上电车穿梭，夜幕降临时煤气灯就会点燃。
　　日本看上去面目一新，明治维新似乎进行得十分顺利。就在这个时候，一件意外的事情发生了。
　　东京清水谷，幽静中显出几分荒凉。1878 年5 月 14 日早晨8点，掌握着明治政府实际权力的大久保利通像往常一样早早地出门，准备入宫开会。
　　几分钟后，一条消息传到宫中：49岁的大久保利通在清水谷被刺杀。
　　就在遇刺当天的凌晨，大久保利通还在和一位前来拜访的地方县令谈起他对日本未来改革的设想。
　　那么，到底是什么力量，结束了大久保利通对这场变革的主导权，为什么明治维新在推进到第11个年头的时候，会突然给整个社会甩出这个巨大的惊叹号？
　　采访：日本东京都立大学 名誉教授 升味准之辅
　　大久保利通是一个意志非常坚决的人，总是拥有毅然决然的态度，是个不妥协的人物。
　　采访：中国日本史学会 会长 汤重南
　　全国对大久保利通的反对还是相当有实力的，特别是在最后把大久保，士族把他刺杀以后，他的政权很快就过去了。
　　为了实现富国强兵、殖产兴业和文明开化三大维新目标，强硬的大久保利通采用简单的拿来主义方式推行改革，但政府在发展工业方面既缺乏经验又急欲求成，导致政府财政难以为继。而文明开化过程中的过火行为，使得日本的传统文化面临崩溃，甚至有人提出日本人应该改说英语，与西洋人通婚，以改良日本人种。这一切，不可避免地引发了现代文明与本土传统的激烈冲突。
　　与此同时，改革带来的不公平使本已存在的社会矛盾更加激化。1881年，政府以不到投资额三十分之一的低价，将北海道官产出售给个人。这一事件使民众对官商勾结的腐败行为极度不满，几乎酿成暴动。直到天皇出面罢免一批高官，才制止了事态的恶化。
　　大久保利通遇刺身亡之后，把改革的难题留给了继任者伊藤博文。
　　作为大久保利通一直以来的得力助手，伊藤博文将如何面对眼前的社会矛盾？他将选择什么样的方式继续明治维新的事业呢？
　　采访：日本东京都立大学 名誉教授 升味准之辅
　　伊藤博文，大概在众多的(日本)领导人当中，可以说是思想最宏伟的吧，视野宽广，性格开放。
　　伊藤博文上任不久，就遇到了一件棘手的事情。明治政府曾明令禁止相扑这一日本的传统运动，理由是：近乎裸体的相扑手丑陋而愚昧。但是，一位名叫高砂的相扑高手开始挑战政府禁令，要在东京举办公开的相扑表演。
　　支持高砂的民众和前来干涉的警察相持不下。为了避免对抗升级，天皇不得不亲自举办并出席了一个相扑表演会，恢复了这项运动。
　　相扑手的挑战和民众的不满，让伊藤博文不得不仔细思考国家的发展方向和改革的方式。伊藤博文执政时的日本，由改革引起的矛盾已经突现在社会的政治生活当中。在西风东进中睁眼看世界的日本民众开始主张自己的权利。一场大规模的、持久的自由民权运动正在日本社会各阶层展开。
　　采访：日本早稻田大学 名誉教授 依田熹家
　　首先是以自由民权运动为中心，对政府提出了制定宪法的要求。正是由于自由民权运动的激化，使明治政府意识到必须制定宪法设立国会，否则政府本身很可能被推翻。
　　惯于顺应大势的伊藤博文也意识到，日本国立宪，已是大势所趋。他开始起草日本的第一部宪法。
　　十多年来的改革经验告诉他：简单的拿来主义已经不能推动日本社会的进一步变革。
　　此时，伊藤博文的朋友涩泽荣一已经在自己的商业王国里，对本国传统和现代文明的融合进行了有效的实践。
　　一生创办了500多家企业的涩泽荣一，被称为“日本的现代企业之父”，从投身实业的那一天起，他就把中国儒家经典《论语》当作自己的行动指南。他到处演讲，号召日本人做一手拿《论语》，一手拿算盘的企业家。涩泽荣一提出了义利合一的经商理念；伊藤博文则在《宪法》中结合进了本国的传统。
　　于是，一个看上去令人费解的现象出现了：在本意是为了保护民权事实上也确实写上了民权的《宪法》中，伊藤博文却加入了确立天皇绝对权力的条款。这是为什么呢？
　　采访：日本东京大学 名誉教授 奥平康弘
　　不知什么原因，以天皇为中心的思想，有些近似宗教性了，绝大多数日本人认为，如果这个宗教没有了的话，日本就不是日本了，包括当时推动日本现代化进程的人也都这样认为，伊藤博文也当然会利用这种思想潮流。
　　1889年2 月 11 日，东京都降下漫天大雪，由伊藤博文起草的《大日本帝国宪法》颁布实施。《帝国宪法》在巩固明治维新成果的同时，借助日本传统中对天皇的尊崇，以法律的形式确认天皇神圣不可侵犯，并拥有统帅军队以及对外宣战等一切大权。
　　《帝国宪法》使得日本在政治上实行的是表面上的多党制，实际上的天皇制，由此决定了日本在崛起初期对外扩张、对内高压的军国主义走向。有历史学家认为，伊藤博文执政时期，在相扑这样的民族传统得到恢复的同时，日本传统文化中的糟粕，尤其是军国主义也随之被召回和强化了。
　　但在当时，伊藤博文却借此化解了日益尖锐的社会矛盾。《宪法》颁布之后，日本经济快速发展，极端西化的做法被慢慢遏制。于是，日本的社会生活中出现了这样一些场景：
　　西服流行的同时，和服被当作最华丽的礼服保留下来；酒吧多起来了，茶室依然是人们的精神净地；西洋歌剧开始唱响，能剧和歌舞伎在走向极致；当油画开始绚丽夺目时，日本的浮世绘也成为世界绘画的一大流派。
　　采访：中国日本史学会 会长 汤重南
　　日本文化像洋葱头文化，这种形象，可以让我们非常清楚地看到日本文化的一种状况，它像洋葱头一样，剥开一片，剥开一片，最后想要找日本文化的核，没有，因为什么，因为它每一片里头都含有外来文化影响和它日本文化非常重要成分的一种结合、融合。
　　与此同时，日本也像德国那样，采用了一种有别于自由主义经济的发展模式，历史学家们称之为“统制主义经济模式”，就是在保留资本主义基本性质的前提下，改变经济运行的方法，使国家成为主导力量，从而让工业化以超出常规的速度腾飞起来。
　　到1910年的时候，日本 95%以上的男子，90% 以上的女子都接受过教育。日本和英国的铁路里程差距从明治维新初期的1000倍缩小为不到4倍。
　　日本看上去已经是一个工业国了，但是和西方工业强国相比，它显然还有相当的差距。如何用最快的方式实现赶超的目标？日本一直在寻找这样一条捷径。
　　早在明治政府刚刚成立五年的时候，日本就用武力逼迫邻国朝鲜开国并从中获利，这距离它被美国打开国门还不到20年。
　　采访：日本文明史学家 加藤周一
　　明治的口号是“富国强兵”，明治政府成立后，首先做的第一件事，就是建立了现代军队，那是(明治维新的)目标。
　　19世纪末，日本著名的思想家福泽谕吉直截了当地为日本指出了这样一条便捷之路，“我国不可犹疑，与其坐待邻国之进步而与之共同复兴东亚，不如脱其行伍，而与西洋各文明国家共进退。”
　　所谓的西洋各“文明国”，当时正在全球争夺势力范围。历史上一直选择与强者为伍的日本，这一次选择了与西洋列强共进退，加入到武力掠夺的行列。当明治维新带来了国力的增长时，日本军国主义加快了对外扩张的步伐。
　　采访：中国社会科学院日本研究所 所长 蒋立峰
　　明治维新应该说到1889年，1890年前后维新阶段就已经结束了，后来它整个的国家战略就发生了改变，怎么改变呢，原来是通过改革来促发展，从1890年以后就变成了通过战争来促发展。
　　字幕：1894年中日甲午战争
　　1904年日俄战争
　　1914年第一次世界大战
　　连年的对外侵略，日本侵占了朝鲜和中国的台湾，大量的资源和赔款流入日本国内。仅甲午战争后日本从中国掠去的赔款数额，就相当于它当年国家财政收入的4倍多，赔款中的一半以上都用于扩充海陆军军备。
　　几番得手之后，日本军国主义野心更加膨胀起来，终于发展到要建立“大东亚共荣圈”，独霸太平洋和印度洋的地步。在长达半个世纪的岁月里，日本扩张势力的战争一个接着一个。
　　字幕：九·一八事变 1931年日军侵占中国东北
　　七·七事变 1937年，日军挑起卢沟桥事变
　　偷袭珍珠港 1941年12月8日，太平洋战争爆发
　　1945年8月 美军在日本广岛和长崎投下原子弹
　　在原子弹爆炸的蘑菇云升空的那一刻，日本军国主义企图依靠武力称雄世界的迷梦破灭了，正如此前和此后所有迷信武力争霸的国家一样，侵略战争在给别的国家带来灾难的同时，也给了日本毁灭性的打击。从明治维新开始近八十年来积累的物质成果，在战火中几乎化为灰烬。
　　字幕：1945年8月15日 天皇向日本国民宣布日本战败(原声)
　　1945年9月2日 日本在美国战列舰“密苏里”号签署投降书
　　在战后的最初几年里，占领国美国每天要向日本提供100万美元的资助，每天要运来6000吨大米才能保证尽可能地少饿死人。
　　然而，没有人会预料到，在这样一片看似一无所有的废墟上，日本仅仅用了二十多年时间，就实现了经济的崛起。从1955年至1964年间，日本的国民生产总值年增长率始终保持在9%以上。从1965年到1970年，这一增长率更是超过了10%。对于这个奇迹般的速度，人们给出了各种各样的解释。而无论从哪个角度来分析，人们都无法忽视其中最根本的一个原因。
　　采访：中国社会科学院日本研究所 研究员 金熙德
　　(日本)战败以后被炸为废墟，但是呢，它还是留下了明治维新以来百年发展的底子，像科学技术人才，还有一些学习西方的，搞工业化的一套东西，所以，它虽然物质上像楼房炸塌了，但是它这些，用现在的话就是软实力，还是保留下来了，所以，这是日本战后尽快经济腾飞的一个基础。
　　与此同时，战后的日本得到了《和平宪法》的护航。这部从1947年5月开始实施的新宪法规定：日本的主权属于国民，天皇只作为日本国的象征存在；日本永久放弃国家主权发动的战争，不保持陆海空军及其他战争力量，不承认国家的交战权。在《和平宪法》的框架下，明治维新打下的基础开始发挥作用。
　　这里曾经是日本的第一个火车站。1872年，日本的第一条铁路由英国人建成，明治天皇亲自前来参加通车典礼。七年之后，日本人开始自己设计和修建铁路。1964年，世界上第一条高速铁路出现在日本东京和大阪之间，它的行车时速是普通铁路的三倍，日本人把它叫做“新干线”。与新干线一起延伸的，还有一大批在战后借鉴了欧美企业制度成长起来的将触角伸展到全世界的跨国公司。正是它们，将日本带上了高速发展的轨道。
　　新干线诞生四年后的1968年，日本的国民生产总值达到1419亿美元。就在这一年，日本成为仅次于美国和苏联的世界第三大经济强国。而这一年，正是明治维新一百周年。无论从哪个角度讲，充满自信的日本民众都有理由认为，这是宣告日本重新崛起的最有象征意义的一个时间。
　　日本一百年的大国之路，的确有太多的事情需要总结。但无论怎样去总结，有一点是确切无疑的，在今天的世界，任何一个国家的崛起，可以称道的意义只是在于：对内，给它自己的人民带来幸福；对外，给世界带去和平和安全的福祉。

美杂志声称中国已获“逆火” 并仿制远程轰炸机

美国军事评论员声称，中国空军目前已经获得12架俄制图-22E3“逆火”轰炸机，中国将通过对此研究来发展自身的大型远程洲际轰炸机。该评论员声称，由于俄罗斯没有同意把图160卖给中国，因此，中国短期内还不可能在实际意义上达到真正的洲际战略轰炸机的水平。

美国《航空》杂志刊载科洛菲尔评论员文章报道，中国早期研制的多种大型运输机由于技术贫乏遭到流产。但运-10大型运输机例外，这是中国早期设计的首批涡轮喷气是双发运输机。其设计性能介于早期的波音707-727之间，其原型机于70年代末期建造。

可以看出，中国早期就具有一定大型运输机设计能力。而运-8，运-9均来自于前苏联设计的安-12，并没有太多的更新化设计。运-9是中国目前在新近研制的中型客机，但仍然采用不利于扩展的涡轮轮浆发动机。

科洛菲尔声称，中国空军目前已经获得12架来自俄罗斯的图-22E3“逆火”轰炸机。中国采购此种轰炸机主要试图通过对此研究来发展自身的大型远程洲际轰炸机。但是由于俄罗斯没有同意把图-160卖给中国，因此，中国不太可能在近期内达到真正的洲际战略轰炸机的水平。

并且，因为图-22载荷能力远比俄罗斯图-160或者美国空军装备的B-1B轰炸机要小，甚至不及B-52轰炸机。但是图-22的远程空中突防能力很好，可以轻易突破多数欧洲国家的防空体系。
科洛菲尔声称，中国目前已经在试验一种类似美国“飞马M”空射火箭的武器，这是类似于AGM109G的空射型巡航导弹，可以在战区外实施突击打击。预计中国将在今后把这种导弹应用于图-22轰炸机。因此，在南中国海，中国将可以在空中战略打击上出现绝对威慑优势。

科洛菲尔认为，中国的举动对于平衡南亚和平局势，以及美国海空军在南亚势力存在位置十分不利，因此会引发新的一轮的亚洲南部军备竞赛。而中国从2006年开始重点关注远洋海域，并把主要目光放在“战略轰炸机＋航母舰队”以暂时弥补中国缺乏海外基地的窘迫。

而中国的大型飞机计划目前至少有3个项目在运作中，其中以早期名义命名运-10多用途客机就是其中项目之一。预计中国会借用法国技术来发展自主的大型飞机。而中国一些学者指出：中国没有必要在发展自己的大型客机，而对于远程洲际运输机中国更加不必去研制。

“Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.”

“Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.”
物有所不足，智有所不明
好学若饥、谦卑若愚
This is the text of the Commencement address by Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, delivered on June 12, 2005.
I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.
The first story is about connecting the dots.
I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?
It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.
And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.
It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:
Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.
None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.
Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.
My second story is about love and loss.
I was lucky — I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation — the Macintosh — a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.
I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me — I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.
I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.
During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.
I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.
My third story is about death.
When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.
Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.
About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.
I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.
This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:
No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.
Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.
When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.
Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.
Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.
Thank you all very much.
The full piece here and here the video from YouTube.

The VW Story

The VW Story

Autos The VW Story A look back at the successes and flops of Europe’s biggest car maker Autos News & Features By Marty Bernstein Every history, even a summary history, must have a beginning, a starting point if you will, of what will be-come a passing parade of events, dates, people and, in this instance, vehicles. This summary is no different, but does try to limit the length of the parade. Sometimes, there’s just too much information. The Early Years -- the 1930’s The time: sixty-nine years ago, May 28th, 1937. The place: Germany. The event: Automotive history was made with the founding of a new automobile company, the Gesellschaft zur Vorbereitung des Deutschen Volkswagens mbH, that, a little over a year later, became Volkswagenwerk GmbH. Thus began the formal story of Volkswagen. For many this date, indeed this event, marked the end of Germany’s World War I economic depression, but for many it was the beginning a very dark time. The clouds of World War II were forming, the subjugation and subsequent death of millions was only months away. According to unimpeachable sources, the real history of the Volkswagen began a few years earlier, on February 11, 1933. That is when Adolf Hitler, the new Chancellor of Germany made his first public speaking appearance at the Berlin Auto Show. Before a crowd of auto executives and the media (somethings never change do they?), Hitler revealed his plan for the “motorization” of Germany. The linchpins of this plan were construction of the first superhighway, the autobahn, and the idea of a new affordable car for everyone. Almost simultaneously, a talented German automotive designer, Ferdinand Porsche, was designing and building a prototype of an inexpensive, odd looking, yet sleek design, rear engine, air cooled, little vehicle that could hold five people. Porsche and Hitler had fateful meetings in 1933 and 1934, with Porsche promising to deliver proto-types within the year. Three handmade cars were delivered for testing and 30 more were built by Mercedes-Benz two years later. Then in 1938, after testing was approved building began for a new factory to manufacture the new Volkswagens. But in fact, few were produced; rather, military vehicles which included the Kubelwagen – literally, the German Jeep – was built in the new factory by slave labor. These vehicles did not carry the now famous VW circle logo with the V resting inside the W; they were known as KdF, the acronym for the German slogan, kraft durch freude, which means strength through joy. The War Is Over, Rebuilding Begins – the 1940’s During WWII, the factory, a source of military vehicles, was obviously a prime target for Allied bombers and did sustain heavy damage, but surprisingly was not destroyed. After the war was over, the British Army took control of the damaged factory under the supervision of Major Ivan Hirst. Under his watch, machines were rebuilt and repaired, the line reestablished, and the factory was brought up to speed. In an amazing feat of accomplishment, 2,000 vehicles were built in 1945 from parts found in the factory’s rubble. The following year, the Brit’s had pushed production up to 10,000 vehicles, renamed the company Volkswagen, and gave the factory town the name Wolfsberg, which was taken from the name of a local castle. But in typical end-of-war attitude, the British wanted to get out of the automobile business and sought to give control of the company to a qualified company. And here’s where it gets really interesting… Among those astute companies who turned down the open offer to take control of the company was the Ford Motor Company, who thought it would be a money drain. The French government gave an emphatic “mai no,” as did a long-gone British auto company, even Fiat said they’d pass. Bottom line? They could not give away the company to a going business. So, in 1949, they gave the whole kit and caboodle to the new German government in trust. With a new vigor and commitment, aided in part by the U.S. Marshall Plan, VW became a viable growing business. Factory improvements were made, new models were introduced (including, the Transporter aka the VW Bus), sales in Germany grew, exports to other European nations were developed, production steadily increased and new workers were hired. Life was getting good. Then, in 1949, the first VW’s were imported to the U.S. by an entrepreneur named Ben Pon, unfortunately, with little success. The reasons were many: American’s did not want a car that looked like a bug, the vehicle made a lot of noise, did not have a synchromesh transmission, much less chrome trim, nor did it have a radio or gas gauge, it wasn’t heated, and similar to Ford’s “Tin Lizzie,” it was only available in one color, grey. Sales were nil, partially due to a still lingering anti-German sentiment following the war. Big was better, bolder and more beautiful. American brands were the ranking royalty. Those Fantastic, Fabulous Days – The 1950’s in America Undaunted by its initial lack of success, Volkswagen made another effort in the early ‘50’s to sell in the U.S. market teaming up with the Hoffman Company, which began to import Volkswagen Beetles to America. This second attempt again resulted in little success, despite the fact a new export model had been introduced with chrome trim, various colors were available, as was a radio and manifold heater, but it still lacked a gas gauge. It did have a minuscule reserve tank, which was manually operated to switch from the regular tank when empty. It was in the mid-fifties that America and Americans underwent a significant change. It was a change in attitudes, mores, entertainment, customs and former habits that led to the enjoyment of peacetime and a vibrant economy. Times were good, even amid the Cold War and the Iron Curtain. The move to the suburbs had begun, the first shopping center was built, a college education was no longer unusual, the Dow Jones was in the low hundreds, the low hundreds! What is now called the Golden Age of Television – great variety, drama, kids shows and westerns – was underway on black and white sets, without remote controls. Limited broadcasts in color began in 1953. The NFL was barely mentioned on sports pages, baseball was king of sports broadcasting, boxing came in at a close second. The news lasted just 15 minutes. Presidential press conferences were not televised. Elvis cut his first Sun Record and rock and roll began. Broadway introduced musicals that still appear today. It was a period of consumer innovation and invention. Bell Labs created the first telephone answering machine, Super Glue came to the market, the double helix of DNA was discovered, the ubiquitous bar code, Velcro, the remote control and birth control pills were patented, the hula hoop was introduced, and man walked on the moon. Cars were more than a mode of transportation; Detroit proffered, presented and promoted them as a means of communicating status, wealth, position, and comfort albeit with tailfin design excess. The Edsel was introduced, as was power steering and radial tires. But it was also the beginning of non-conformity to an egalitarian norm. Sputnik beat America to space. The first Beatniks appeared on college campuses. Dirty books were no longer dirty, they were best selling, Pulitzer prize winning novels or books of poetry. Art was paintings of soup cans and splashes of paint. Then suddenly, almost miraculously and without any advertising, VW’s started to sell; first in college towns, then in a few major metro areas. Sales jumped from 2,000 units in 1953 to 150,000 in 1959. Who was buying Beetles? Trendsetters (early adapters we’d call ‘em today), iconoclasts, college professors and recent grads and people who demanded value, quality and function over style, design and perceived image. The VW business was better than good in Germany, it was booming, which was a boon to the West German economy that heavily relied on exports. Beetle’s, as they were then called, were being sold in Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, Belgium, Switzerland and the UK. New factories had been built in South Africa and Brazil to meet the growing demand. Then, in late 1959, Volkswagen decided to hire an advertising agency and … Automotive and Advertising History is Made – The 60’s A little known, New York advertising agency, Doyle Dane Bernbach (DDB), whose claim to fame was a few ads they had created for the opening of a VW dealer on Long Island, and a handful of unique ads created by a Jewish owned agency for primarily Jewish clients – Orbach’s, a discount department store, Levy’s Rye Bread, El Al Airlines – won the Volkswagen account over more traditional ad agencies. A German company and a Jewish agency…conventional wisdom said, this was not a match, much less a marriage made in heaven. But this was not a conventional agency or a conventional client. The non-conformist VW executive in America who made this momentous decision was Carl Hahn, a man who several years later gained a Ghosn-like reputation and stature. Most automotive print advertising in those days was an imagined expression of what car companies and their ad agencies thought the world, automobiles and the people who owned and drove the specific brand should look like. Stretch it. Imagine, indeed invent a lovely situation and venue. Show beautiful people doing wonderful things in stylish, scenic or bucolic surroundings, and of course, all while they’re next to a car. Reality be damned. Look at All American Ads - 60’s edited by Jim Heimann and published by Taschen, you’ll see I’m not exaggerating. To the 50’s automotive advertising world of splashy colors, exaggerated drawings, paintings and renderings of vehicles that were married to dreary copy, laden with facts and clichés as well as features and perceived benefits, Doyle Dane brought not just freshness, but they invented a new form of advertising. One that is alive and thriving today. But then they had to. VW in the ‘60’s was essentially unknown. Those who had read or heard about the company knew it was German, the car inspired by Hitler, was founded to make cars for the Germans, using slave and concentration camp labor to build military vehicles during the war. This was not a minor obstacle to overcome or surmount back then as resentment still smoldered from WWII. So, how did DDB overcome this impediment to success? In a stroke of marketing super-genius … they ignored it! That’s right, not one VW ad from DDB ever spoke of its German heritage, history and association. The brand was literally invented in America in 1960 by the advertising – primarily print – at the time. There was no historical frame of reference ever. Contrast that with today, when German automotive heritage is a highly valued expression of excellence. The assets and attributes of the Beetle were simple: It was a cute (some called it an ugly car), well-made, durable little car that was inexpensive and represented a good value. The ads DDB created used these facts to create conversations with consumers that never used the words themselves, just the concepts. DDB was the first agency to use a creative team of writers and art directors, in most agencies the functions were separate. Teams of exceptional talents worked seamlessly to create amazing advertising. Even today, these Volkswagen Advertising Hall of Fame ads would still stand out and cut through the clutter. Just click on these links: Immediately, American consumers responded to the advertising by buying Beetles in ever-increasing numbers. Naturally, DDB kept up the onslaught of non-conventional, conversational advertising that has been called the greatest ad campaign ever. They were creative, unique and ideal for the time, circumstances and inherent issues. By the late ‘60’s, VW was producing over 1 million Beetles a year around the world. In 1968, a great year for VW, the brand had a 5% share of the U.S. new car market. But all good things must come to an end or at least a slow down. The World Was Changing but VW Was Slow to React – The ‘70’s & ‘80s The ‘70’s started out very well for Volkswagen. In 1970, VW sold 569,000 Beetles, the all-time high, which obviously made Volkswagen dealers happy and profitable. But not the manufacturers and dealers of domestic vehicles. Using their combined political clout, influence and pressure, trade quotas and tariffs were installed to stem the tide of imported vehicles. Yet, VW dealers responded in kind. During the record-setting year of 1970, 15 VW dealers met in Washington, D.C. to form the Volkswagen American Dealers Association. The purpose? To preserve a free market for imported international automobiles through political pressure and lobbying. It’s grown some since then. Today, this 11,000 member organization is known as the American International Automobile Dealers Association, or as most readers know it, AIADA. Even with slowing sales in America, on February 17, 1972, the Volkswagen Beetle broke the world car production record with an amazing 15,007,034 units produced worldwide. The Beetle had surpassed the legendary mark achieved by the Ford Motor Company’s famous Model T in quantity and in fewer years of production. But like Ford in the 1930’s, Volkswagen, 40 years later, needed to rev-up their bread and butter. And so it goes, the much gussied-up Super Beetles were introduced with lots of American touches, including air conditioning and McPherson struts. But a combination of the emergence of new competitors from Asia, the gas shortage in the early ‘70’s and a recession did not help the high mpg VW. Increasing governmental demands and regulations pushed the VW Beetle to the maximum a 40+ year old design could take. In 1977, production of the Beetle stopped and two years later production on the convertible also ceased in Germany. Oddly, the VW factory in Brazil kept making Beetles until the early ‘90’s and Mexico was making Beetles and shipping them to Germany almost until the end of the century. A near miss with bankruptcy in the early ‘70’s pushed the now public Volkswagen AG to develop new, more contemporary designs for both Europe and the U.S. markets. And thus, the Passat became the first of a new generation of VW’s. It was followed in 1974 by the Golf, which was known as the Rabbit in the U.S. (and whose return was just recently announced), the sporty Scirocco, Jetta and the GTI. Sales were on the rebound, but not to the extent or impact of the Beetle. The last Beetle in America was sold in 1977. Years of Coma and Malaise – The ‘80’s and ‘90’s In terms of historical reference to VW in America, these two decades were the least favorable, with the ‘80’s being the worst. The new VW vehicles suffered from intense competition from Toyota and Honda, whose cars were less expensive and rated higher in quality, reliability and durability. VW’s expensive factory in Pennsylvania was closed due to poor quality and low sales. The Golf 2 (Rabbit) was introduced as was the Corrado, with little success. Overall sales slipped badly, the company lost dealers. An odd advertising campaign based on a fake German word, “fahrvergnugen,” did not resonate with the public. Then in 1982, Carl Hahn the VW exec who had hired DDB as the agency years before was made president of the company. Under his watch, change and progress, often a slow process, began. The ‘90’s were transitional to Volkswagen; Germany was unified as a nation, but experienced labor unrest from guest workers from Turkey who feared for their jobs swelled. A memorial to workers during the war was unveiled in Wolfsburg and financial settlements were made to over 2,500 wartime workers in 26 nations. In 1991, a new design studio was opened in California with talented designers who would have a major impact a few years later. Business in America was still not good. But 1993, two major events occurred: Ferdinand Piech was made chief operating officer of Volkswagen and the two key designers at the California studio had developed designs for a new Beetle. After much internal discussion, the designs were approved. One year later at the 1994 North American International Automobile Show in Detroit, the newly designed Concept One was introduced. The reaction was amazing among automotive writers and the public. But it took over two years until 1996, before production began on the new Beetle. Internal planning for the launch of the new Beetle was handled by Steve Wilhite (now Nissan’s global vice president for marketing) and Liz Vanzura (who moved to head the intro of Hummer and now leads Cadillac’s marketing) and a new advertising agency, Arnold of Boston. A unique, innovative campaign with the theme, “Drivers Wanted” was launched, prior to the public introduction of the car in order to stimulate interest. In 1998, the New Beetle was debuted to the press and to the public. In just the first year, 55,802 New Beetles were sold in the U.S., and in 1999, the first full-year of production, 83,434 were sold. The car was a success, but had an added halo benefit – it changed the way American’s thought about VW – and correspondingly, helped to energize sales of the Passat and Jetta. The New Century: New Challenges, New Opportunities Momentum had been established, then sales of the New Beetle started to drop – a couple thou in 2000 to 81,134 and the next year sales plummeted to 60,891. The momentum was stalling. Updates and new models were introduced, including a new SUV called the Touareg and an uber-luxury VW sedan called the Phaeton. April 2006 sales just announced for VW are 20,528 units, a gain of 11.2% over 2005 April sales. First quarter sales were 73,824, an increase of 20.4 percent over prior year sales of 61,336. The Jetta continues to be the volume car for Volkswagen, selling 9,929 units, up 32.4 percent as compared to last year’s sales of 7,498. With an increase of 52.9 percent, the Passat sedan posted sales of 3,466. Changes in U.S. senior management were announced late last year, and just this year, two new model Volkswagens have been introduced, the GTI and a new Rabbit. Both have been launched with controversial advertising from a new advertising agency. Although, internal strife and management problems at VW headquarters in Germany have caused a bit of news coverage in recent months, last week a new management contract was signed by Dr. Bernd Pischetsrieder, chairman of the board of management, good thru April 16, 2012. Thus, resolving some of the issues. Is Volkswagen’s Past a Prologue to the Future? As the title of this summary history stipulated, Volkswagen has suffered trials and tribulations and enjoyed triumphs in its corporate history. Like the ancient legend of the Phoenix, VW seems to always rise from the ashes and adversity. Often to greater heights. Will the past be prologue? I think so. # # # Authors Acknowledgments: In writing this summary history of Volkswagen, I have relied upon numerous sources of information, data and expertise, including my own experience as owner of brand new 1960 and 1963 Volkswagens. Hours have been spent searching many of the thousands of sites devoted to VW history via Google, the company’s own websites to the Vintage Volkswagen Club of America historian Heinz Schneider. Special thanks and appreciation to Phil Patton for his book, Bug: The Strange Mutations of the World’s Most Famous Automobile and to Dave Kiley for his book, Getting the Bugs Out: The rise, fall and come-back of Volkswagen in America. Both were in my library prior to writing this article and are highly recommended reads to seeking a great source of information in the fascinating history of automobiles.

A Perpetual Crisis Machine

Jong-Yong Yun

A Perpetual Crisis Machine
Samsung's VIP Center is home to a uniquely paranoid culture--and that's the way the boss likes it.

By PETER LEWIS
September 19, 2005

(FORTUNE Magazine) – The guts of a next-generation digital video camcorder are splayed on a worktable near Sun Woo Song's desk, although to a visitor's eye they might as well be the innards of a notebook computer or a digital TV. Right now they are just a few slabs of green circuitboard attached to a life-support system consisting of an oscilloscope and a power supply. Song gestures proudly at the contraption, inviting me to imagine that it eventually can be folded like origami, sutured to a loading mechanism and a camera, infused with clever software, labeled with the Samsung logo, and delivered into the eager hands of consumers in time for ... Sorry, we can't say when project code-name Rainbow will emerge from Samsung Electronics as a real product.

Rainbow is top secret, just like the 30 or 40 other projects that will pass this year through Samsung's VIP Center for some meticulous fine-tuning or, sometimes, a wholesale reimagining.

Even at this early, concept stage, a small crisis has emerged. Management has sent Rainbow back to the drawing board, intensifying the already palpable sense of urgency. "We needed to enhance the product design," explains Song, senior engineer and leader of the 19-strong Team Rainbow. "The prototype needed more new ideas."

The big green sandwich of silicon and circuits has certainly come to the right place. The five-story VIP Center nestles amid the enormous factories and twin office towers that make up Samsung's industrial complex in Suwon, South Korea, a manufacturing town about an hour south of Seoul and not far from the spot where, in 1969, Samsung Electronics was founded in a Quonset hut. The VIP Center is best described as an invitation-only, round-the-clock assembly line for ideas and profits where Samsung's top researchers, engineers, and designers come to solve their grittiest problems. The ground floor houses big training rooms. Floors two through four are workrooms for the various teams. The top floor is reserved for the 42 dormitory rooms, each containing two beds, a shower, and a small desk and chair. There is a simple shared kitchen. In the basement is the fun stuff--billiards, Ping-Pong, gym, and sauna.

I wander past a meeting room where half a dozen casually clad engineers quietly manipulate their own facets of the consumer electronics puzzle. One team member sitting at his desk stares at a small loop of metal about the size of a silver dollar nestled in his hand, as if he were Hamlet contemplating Yorick's skull. In another room, five men sit around a central conference table, two of them pointing animatedly at a wall projection: "What? The power drain is 5.2 kilovolts? Not good enough! The goal is 4.9!" Other members of Team Rainbow toil quietly in their designated workspaces, knowing they will be testing their limits of endurance soon enough. In spite of an order to add more features while making it simpler, the original schedule for a final camcorder design prototype remains fixed and absolute.

The VIP Center is one of the reasons Samsung Electronics, once known as the maker of cheap black-and-white TVs, has become in less than a decade the world's dominant--and most profitable--consumer electronics company, knocking Sony from the top of the heap. At Samsung, speed equals success, and disaster lurks in every overlooked detail or missed deadline. According to the management philosophy laid out by vice chairman and CEO Jong-Yong Yun (everyone calls him vice chairman Yun), profits in the Digital Age are directly linked to being first to market. A delay in delivery takes a product one step closer to being a commodity, and when it comes to commodities, the low-cost Chinese manufacturers will eat your lunch noodles. Failure is not an option, especially in the VIP Center, a concrete-and-glass embodiment of Samsung's uniquely paranoid corporate culture. "Vice chairman Yun stresses that if you relax, if you become complacent, a crisis will find you," adds Kyunghan Jung, a senior manager of the VIP Center. "There is," he says, "a lot of tension here."

The VIP Center--which stands for Value Innovation Program, not Very Important Person--is definitely a guy's kind of hangout. The hospital-drab walls are decorated mainly by flow charts, timelines of technological achievement, and above every urinal in the men's room, a picture of a jet exploding into the side of the World Trade Center in New York City. (The Korean text over the pictures warns of the importance of maintaining top security and reminds the viewer that disaster can strike out of the blue.) A roll of toilet paper on a tray of fruit juices provides a low-cost alternative to napkins.

More than a dozen projects are underway in the VIP Center on the day of my visit, some expected to last a month, some as long as a year. I'm being allowed to tag along with two of them: the Eiger project, which has to reduce material costs on a new flatbed, multifunction printer by 30%; and Rainbow, which must trim the hundreds of steps needed to manufacture a new camcorder by 25%.

Once through the front door and past the security guards, climbing the stairs of the building reveals door after door after closed door marked with code names: Hinan, Mosel, Porsche, Elle. The various teams closeted within could be working on a new liquid-crystal display TV or a problem with semiconductor yields or maybe just a way to eliminate one function from an air-conditioner control panel. While the objects of their attention vary widely, the team members at the VIP Center have one thing in common: Their bosses have vowed in writing--etched in metal on a plaque that hangs on the wall--to keep them in the VIP Center until they have solved their particular problems. If that means spending the night, so be it. Although team members may go home to sleep if they want to, Samsung executives acknowledge--with obvious pride--that the building is occupied 24 hours a day, seven days a week. And even if they don't sleep over, 18- to 20-hour days are not uncommon. "When people are told they have to come here, they know they have to come up with results in a very, very short time," says Song, a veteran team leader. "This is not a prison," one engineer tells me, "but it's not a volunteer job either."

In April the managers invited the wives of Team Rainbow's researchers--of the 39 original members, only one is female--to the VIP Center to explain that their husbands were coming home late or not at all because they were working and sleeping in the dorm.

"Our wives were complaining," recalls Jaehoon Koo, a software specialist and VIP Center veteran who moved his family to Suwon in order to be able to sleep in his own bed, if for only a few hours a night. "We called a meeting to soothe and comfort the family members, to remind them how important this project is and why it is needed for the husbands to work so hard." And why is that? "We're building the foundation for the new generation of camcorders," Koo explains.

Doosik Joo, a father of three and a five-time VIP alumnus, has a different explanation. "People say, 'You've spent all your life there, and what have you done?'" he says. "I can say, 'I drove down costs, created more value for the customer.' Sure, maybe we work more than the normal eight hours, but because we do, the next generation may only have to work eight hours. We do it not only for our company and our families, but also for our country."

Working and living in the VIP Center is not just geek macho. "Seventy percent to 80% of quality, cost, and delivery time is determined in the initial stages of product development," says Jung, the crisis-conscious senior manager whose business card also identifies him as a certified value specialist. He's one of the 50 or so "core members" of the VIP Center staff who work to support the teams assembled from across the company, all determined to engineer value into Samsung's next-generation products. The company's obsession with reducing complexity early in the design cycle is one reason Samsung Electronics has lower manufacturing costs, higher profit margins (an industry-leading 21% last year), quicker time to market, and, more often than not, more innovative products than its competition.

But for Yun (pronounced yoon), nothing breeds failure quite like success. And Samsung Electronics has had a lot of successes lately. It's the world's leading maker of memory chips, flat-panel LCD displays, and color televisions, and it's battling Motorola to be the world's No. 2 maker of mobile phones, behind Nokia. Last year it earned more than $9 billion on $72 billion in sales, good by any standard but remarkable for a manufacturing company. It has twice the market capitalization of Sony, which has long served as a Samsung role model. Hardly a week goes by in which Samsung fails to announce a "world's first" or "world's biggest" or world's something-or-other product. In recent months Samsung has unveiled a seven-megapixel digital camera phone, an 82-inch LCD display, a 102-inch plasma HDTV, a phone that receives satellite television broadcasts--the list goes on and on.

Most telling, a humbled Sony turned to Samsung last year to help it gain a foothold in the flat-panel TV market, and earlier this summer the British market-research firm Interbrand calculated that Samsung's global brand value--defined as the present value of the brand's future earnings--had actually passed Sony's for the first time. The reversal can be attributed in part to a decline in Sony's fortunes, but since Yun restructured the business in 1997, no other global company's brand equity has grown faster.

Marketing and design are critical factors in Samsung's rise, of course, but the bedrock of Samsung's growing global presence, and the reason it is likely to stay No. 1 even if rivals steal a march from time to time, is the sheer depth and scale of its technical research. No other tech company--not Intel, not Microsoft, not Sony--spends a higher percentage of revenue on R&D than Samsung does: 8.3% last year, or $4.6 billion, rising to more than 9% this year. (The company has nearly 27,000 researchers, out of a total workforce of 113,600, including some 2,400 Ph.D.s and 8,600 with master's degrees, working in 17 research centers around the globe.) And while Asian competitors cut capital expenditures and R&D spending to weather the Asian financial crisis of 1997, Samsung boosted its already high investment in new technologies. Those investments put it in position to dominate today's hot markets--LCD TVs, multimedia mobile phones, and memory chips. Even if you don't own a Samsung-branded product, there's probably a bit of Samsung in whatever device you do own: Apple iPods, Dell computers, Microsoft Xboxes, Nokia phones, Sony PlayStation Portables--name your favorite gadget.

For Yun, a scholarly 61-year-old engineer who looks to history and philosophy books for inspiration, this growing list of No. 1's are so many more reasons not to celebrate. In his monthly speeches to employees he invariably warns that Samsung is in a crisis every bit as severe as the one that nearly destroyed the company in 1997. Back then, memory chips provided 50% of the profits of Samsung Electronics and 35% of the total revenue of Samsung Group, the family-owned chaebol, or conglomerate, of which Samsung Electronics is the largest division. But in 1996 the memory-chip business began to implode as supply outstripped demand. Samsung Electronics had taken on prodigious debt to expand in chips, and as prices fell, the company reeled.

Today, says Yun, "we stand at the crossroads to becoming a world leader or a major failure." There are, in fact, unsettling similarities to the late-1990s crisis. Now, as then, a record year for profits presaged a collapse in prices for almost all of Samsung's key products; profits and market growth in mobile phones are shrinking, and the 15% rise of Korea's won against foreign currencies in the past year has withered profit margins for a company that gets 80% of its revenue from exports. First-quarter profits this year were down 52%, followed by a 46% decline in the second quarter. On top of that, the South Korean economy is stagnant, labor unrest is on the rise, and Samsung Group executives are mired in a scandal involving slush-fund payments to politicians. There are even public protests against Samsung's overwhelming dominance of the Korean economy. Looming over all is China, simultaneously Samsung's biggest potential market--and competitive threat. Yun's paranoia is not some managerial affectation.

To understand Samsung's hunger for success, it's necessary to understand South Korea. Brutalized by the Japanese military occupation during the first half of the 20th century and almost completely destroyed in the 1950s war that divided the country, South Korea had one of the world's poorest economies in the 1960s and lacked the industrial infrastructure, particularly the manufacturing and electronics expertise, that Japan and other Asian countries developed after World War II. When the three-year-old Samsung Electronics Co. began selling black-and-white TVs in Korea in 1972, Sony was already a brand globally admired for its high-quality transistor radios, tape players, and Trinitron color TVs.

By 1995, Samsung--the name means "three stars" in Korean--was making memory chips and other components that helped power the high-tech products of brand-name Japanese and American companies. Its own Samsung-branded consumer-electronics business focused on making commodity products cheaply. That year, celebrating the group's growing success, Kun-Hee Lee, the chairman and son of the Samsung Group's founder, gave Samsung mobile phones to friends and key workers. Within days, however, he was receiving complaints that the phones were defective. Embarrassed, he ordered the entire inventory from the Gumi factory that had built the phones--$50 million worth--to be piled in a giant heap in the factory's courtyard. Under banners proclaiming that Samsung would from then on be known as a maker of quality goods, Lee, his top managers, and 2,000 employees watched as workers smashed 150,000 wireless handsets, cordless phones, and fax machines with hammers and threw the pieces into a bonfire. "A defect is a cancer," Lee proclaimed. It marked the beginning of the company's transformation into a respected global brand.

As semiconductor prices plunged in 1996, Lee realized that Samsung Electronics would have to diversify beyond the cyclical memory-chip business. So in December 1996 he tapped Jong-Yong Yun as president and CEO and exhorted him, "Change everything except your spouse and children."

Yun had barely begun to formulate a strategy when the 1997 Asian meltdown hit. Spooked Western investors staged the equivalent of a run on Asian stocks, currencies, and assets, wreaking havoc in markets across Asia and driving Samsung to the brink of bankruptcy. Yun acted quickly and boldly. He dumped dozens of non-core businesses, fired nearly one-third of the workforce--shocking in the Korean chaebol culture of lifetime employment--and bet the company on the emerging world of digital technologies. "Sometimes," says Yun, who's fond of speaking in Confucian-esque aphorisms, "the lizard has to sacrifice its tail to survive."

This period saw him crystallize what he calls his "sincere management" philosophy: Cut costs for short-term competitiveness. Spend on research in core technologies for long-term competitiveness. Don't enter new markets or product lines unless there's a real chance to become No. 1. Ruthlessly cut any business that does not earn the company a growing profit. Be the first to get innovative products to market. Constantly refine supply-chain and decision management. Adapt quickly. Put quality first.

Yun decided that Samsung had to control its own destiny and not just copy others if it was to transform itself into a 21st-century power. Dissecting the iconic products of the emerging Digital Age--computers, cellphones, CD players, and the like--Yun identified core technologies common to them all: semiconductors, large-area LCDs, display drivers and chip sets, and mobile telephony. This focus gave the company a big advantage. Although Sony and other rivals had a huge head start in consumer electronics, that lead was based in the analog world. The digital world required new skills and technologies, Yun realized, and it was suddenly a level playing field. (It wouldn't be for long.)

About the same time, the South Korean government began a concerted effort to propel the nation to the cutting edge of information technologies, building a national broadband Internet network that today is unmatched in the world. The growing digital infrastructure gave Samsung a vast, real-world laboratory for testing new products and services. And into this churning environment, the VIP Center was born.

Inside the VIP Center the day never begins, because it never really ends. And although weekends are officially encouraged, all the team members know that as deadlines approach, Saturdays and Sundays--and time with their families--can evaporate. "The calendar on the wall here at VIP Center says Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Friday, Friday," Team Rainbow's Jaehoon Koo jokes.

"Currently for the design team it is a very busy time," Koo says, which is a VIP euphemism for very little sleep. "Next it will be the circuit team. Then the software team." And software time means the 35-year-old Koo may not be going home for a while. Although his rule is to go home at night--even if it's 4 A.M. and he has to be back at dawn--at crunch time the dorm rooms are "necessary for the success of the program. In the VIP Center it's very easy to work, very good for the early stages of a project," he says. There are no distracting phone calls, no messy administrative tasks. All the critical team members are within shouting distance, and with everyone working on the same project in the same room, arranging meetings on short notice is a snap. The VIP Center support team is always available to lend a computer-aided engineering specialist, a modular-design expert, mechanical engineers, and quality specialists.

The critical nature of teamwork becomes evident late one morning as the Rainbow team leader, Sun Woo Song, is focused on the mother of all spreadsheets, the one he maintains with hundreds of color-coded mini-deadlines and links showing how one facet of the project is connected to another. He's found a bottleneck: key coding. The buttons on the camcorder can't be programmed until the software is complete. But technically it's doable; it's mainly a juggling act with clocks and calendars.

As he struggles with the schedule, I pop in on Project Eiger; it's winding down its stint in the VIP Center and has fewer than ten members at the moment. The prototype on the worktable is actually recognizable as an all-in-one flatbed printer, scanner, and copier. I joke through my translator that it must have been zapped with Samsung's ultra-top-secret shrinking ray gun. These guys become visibly nervous at the mention of the phrase "ultra-top-secret shrinking ray gun," as if I've discovered a trade secret. Indeed, secrets at the VIP Center are so guarded that one engineer asks me not to write "new laser printer" or "next-generation camcorder." "It could cause big damage to our competitive nature," he says.

The tightly wound engineer leaves, perhaps to stare at the picture of the plane taking down Tower Two, and I get to talk with Byung Sun Ahn, who has logged more hours in the VIP Center than almost anyone else. "I like to think of the VIP Center as a smaller version of NASA," says Ahn, 45, the principal engineer and project manager for the Eiger team. He worked on one of the first VIP projects back in 1998 and 1999 and has led several teams. "You know, everyone in the same room, looking up at the same big screen. The place is designed for smooth communications and fast decision-making."

"In the U.S., everyone has their own small cubicle, their own space," Ahn continues. "Here we each have our own desks around the walls, but there's a big central table. You can see from people's expressions how they're doing. We're able to communicate efficiently in real time. When we gather around the table, we're like NASA, all specialists working together and looking at the same big screen."

The specialists come not only from Ahn's digital printing division, but also from the core VIP Center staff. The sponsoring group--digital video in the case of Rainbow, digital printing for Eiger--pays all the development cost, while the VIP Center provides the dorm facilities, the food, and the training, a key part of the VIP Center experience. That takes me downstairs to the TRIZ room.

TRIZ is a Russian acronym for Theory of Inventive Problem Solving. It's a curious throwback from the Stalin-era Soviet Union that has proven unexpectedly effective in the hands of Samsung's single-minded capitalists. Some 60 years ago a Russian patent clerk, Genrich Altshuller, who had studied thousands of submissions, decided that there were patterns of innovation common to the evolution of scientific and technical advances, and that inventiveness could be taught just like, say, reading or arithmetic. He developed the TRIZ method, which uses some 200 different exercises to help develop creative problem solving and is based on the concept of resolving contradictions. It is so popular among Samsung product designers that TRIZ team leader, Jun-Young Lee, is developing a multimedia training tool to reach thousands of engineers instead of the couple of hundred or so who can schedule personal training sessions at the VIP Center. His team includes two Russians, Eduard Kurgi and Yury Danilovskiy, who are specialists in the technique.

"When something gets better, it can also get worse," Jung, the VIP Center senior manager, explains. Chairman of the Samsung Electronics Fishing Club, the affable Jung turns to angling for an example. "The fishing line has to be thin enough so the fish doesn't notice it," he starts. "But it also has to be strong enough so it doesn't break when you catch the fish. In that case, you make the fishing line flat, so it appears thin, while the flatness gives it strength."

Recognizing a fellow geek, I try to make a connection. His TRIZ explanation is exactly the premise for the thin ribbon of nanoparticles envisioned for a proposed space elevator that would lift small payloads into orbit, I say.

"Yes, fishing is very scientific," Jung agrees.

In any event, TRIZ is by no means unique to Samsung; hundreds of companies--including competitors like Philips, LG, and Motorola--use it too. At the VIP Center, however, the goal is to train every engineer and researcher in the company in TRIZ think. It's employed to evaluate such things as whether a button can be removed from, say, a new camcorder. Removing the button can save lots of money in manufacturing costs, but only if the loss of function is acceptable to the consumer, and only if it takes the camcorder design one step closer to perfection. TRIZ has been useful in increasing the yield of semiconductor factories, designing new motors for washing machines and vacuum cleaners, and increasing the viewing angle of LCD TVs. Collaborating with TRIZ specialists, engineers who are accustomed to attacking technical problems in the traditional linear fashion often come up with breakthroughs.

"We put ideas on the table, they put ideas on the table, and we go from there," says Lee, the TRIZ specialist. "If it's a good idea, we patent it." And, since the VIP Center was created in the late 1990s, Samsung's growth in good ideas, measured in patents, has risen faster than any of its competitors--1,600 last year.

For all his successes, there's one thing missing from Yun's executive bio: a lovable, iconic product on the level of Apple's iPod or Sony's Trinitron. Despite the company's advanced technology, increasingly innovative designs, and TRIZ, it's hard for Americans to think of a single product that's closely identified with the Samsung brand. And to stay atop the consumer-electronics business, Samsung needs not only flawless execution but also a blockbuster--one that is sexier than an Internet- enabled refrigerator. Maybe it will be an advanced mobile phone, or a portable MP3 music player. Yun says that by the end of next year Samsung will displace Apple's iPod from its leadership position. In the meantime Yun has his current crisis to get through, especially dealing with the beating Samsung is taking in its main businesses of memory chips and LCD panels.

Given how quickly Samsung learns and the sheer force of its R&D, the company looks as if it has built the foundation to lead markets for the indefinite future. Today Samsung Electronics ranks No. 1 in the world in eight product categories, including flash memory chips, computer monitors, big LCD screens, and CDMA mobile phones. Yun's goal is to double the No. 1 rankings in three years and triple them in five years. The company's seventh-generation LCD factory is producing high-definition screens the size of a king-size bed. The Korean won is strengthening against the dollar, Samsung is buying back $2 billion of its own stock, and the lights still burn all night at the VIP Center.

In other words, vice chairman Yun sees potential disaster just around the corner. He acknowledges that he rarely misses a chance to remind even his top executives of the perils that, he says, could sink Samsung Electronics at any turn, even in its finest hour, even though he's rung the crisis bell 1,000 times before. "You love your wife, but you still have to tell her that you love her every day," he says.